bayesRatings

Pacers at Timberwolves

NBA · Sunday, Oct 26 · 6:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final IND 110 – MIN 114
← NBA / Oct 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND28321733110
MIN28302828114
Team box
IND·MIN
39-91
field goals
39-84
14-40
3-pointers
10-33
18-27
free throws
26-37
49
rebounds
48
24
assists
19
17
turnovers
14
48
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Pascal SiakamIND3733108
Julius RandleMIN393146
Aaron NesmithIND351882
Donte DiVincenzoMIN381723
Naz ReidMIN2316102
Rudy GobertMIN3414181

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +11
IND +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 11 · IND 5lead changes: 14

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 42%, MIN 58% · Updated Oct 26, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 4.4
Expected score
MIN 115.7 – 111.3 IND
Expected total
227.0
PacersThe matchupTimberwolves
+141Our fair odds−141
111.3Expected points115.7
+0.56Power rating+0.68
119.0Points / game114.0
134.5Allowed / game121.0
42.0FG%48.0
32.53P%42.0
49.5Rebounds / game42.5
0−2Season record1−1
4−6Last 105−5
Andrew Nembhard · Bennedict Mathurin
Johnny Furphy · Kam Jones
T.J. McConnellOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · MIN chance
Our model fair41.5%58.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+14142%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−14158%————
SpreadMIN by 4.4
INDIndiana Pacers+4.4our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−4.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.0
Over227.0our total————
Under227.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 4.4 expected
Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%
← IND wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more52%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more37%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.0 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.568%
Total over 227.548%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GBen Sheppardstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FIsaiah Jacksonstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·MIN
Oct 25, 2025 at MEM
last game
Oct 24, 2025 at LAL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 26, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDAndrew Nembhard · left shoulder; strainOut
INDBennedict Mathurin · right great toe; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · left foot; soreOut
INDKam Jones · lower back; stress reactionOut
INDT.J. McConnell · left hamstring; strainOut
INDTaelon Peter · right groin; strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tornOut
INDQuenton Jackson · right hamstring; strainProbable
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINRob Dillingham · nasal; fractureQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
IND·MIN
+0.56
rating (0 = average)
+0.68
119.0
points / game
114.0
134.5
points allowed / game
121.0
0−2
season record
1−1
0−1
home record
0−0
0−1
away record
1−1
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
42.0
FG%
48.0
32.5
3P%
42.0
49.5
rebounds / game
42.5
23.0
assists / game
22.5
13.5
turnovers / game
15.5
46.0
points in paint / game
43.0

Rating Trend

IND · MIN · 6 days
Indiana PacersMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIN 6−2
Mar 24, 2025at INDIND 119 − 103
Mar 17, 2025at MININD 132 − 130
Mar 7, 2024at INDMIN 113 − 111
Dec 16, 2023at MINMIN 127 − 109
Dec 7, 2022at MINMIN 121 − 115
Nov 23, 2022at INDMIN 115 − 101
Feb 13, 2022at INDMIN 129 − 120
Nov 29, 2021at MINMIN 100 − 98

IND · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Oct 25, 2025at MEM103 − 128L
Oct 23, 2025vs OKC135 − 141L
Jun 22, 2025at OKC91 − 103L
Jun 19, 2025vs OKC108 − 91W
Jun 16, 2025at OKC109 − 120L
Jun 13, 2025vs OKC104 − 111L
Jun 11, 2025vs OKC116 − 107W
Jun 8, 2025at OKC107 − 123L
Jun 5, 2025at OKC111 − 110W
May 31, 2025vs NY125 − 108W

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 24, 2025at LAL110 − 128L
Oct 22, 2025at POR118 − 114W
May 28, 2025at OKC94 − 124L
May 26, 2025vs OKC126 − 128L
May 24, 2025vs OKC143 − 101W
May 22, 2025at OKC103 − 118L
May 20, 2025at OKC88 − 114L
May 14, 2025vs GS121 − 110W
May 12, 2025at GS117 − 110W
May 10, 2025at GS102 − 97W