bayesRatings

Suns at Jazz

NBA · Monday, Oct 27 · 8:00 PM CT · Delta Center · Final PHX 134 – UTAH 138
← NBA / Oct 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
PHX2734253810134
UTAH3925303014138
Team box
PHX·UTAH
45-106
field goals
44-108
20-55
3-pointers
16-49
24-31
free throws
34-36
48
rebounds
64
37
assists
27
14
turnovers
19
50
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH4551143
Devin BookerPHX4434510
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH4326510
Walker KesslerUTAH3525114
Mark WilliamsPHX3125110
Grayson AllenPHX422325

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +20
PHX +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: UTAH 20 · PHX 4lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 65%, UTAH 35% · Updated Oct 27, 2025

Expected margin
PHX by 6.6
Expected score
PHX 122.3 – 115.7 UTAH
Expected total
238.0
SunsThe matchupJazz
−186Our fair odds+186
122.3Expected points115.7
−0.17Power rating−1.03
111.0Points / game116.5
126.0Allowed / game106.5
43.7FG%49.5
32.33P%35.5
42.0Rebounds / game48.0
1−2Season record1−1
2−8Last 102−8
CJ Huntley · Jalen GreenOutGeorges Niang · Isaiah Collier
John Tonje · Oscar Tshiebwe

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair65.0%35.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns−18665%————
UTAHUtah Jazz+18635%————
SpreadPHX by 6.6
PHXPhoenix Suns−6.6our margin————
UTAHUtah Jazz+6.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.0
Over238.0our total————
Under238.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 6.6 expected
Phoenix Suns by 48 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 47 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%
← PHX wins byUTAH wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more59%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more42%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.0 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.567%
Total over 238.548%
Total over 248.530%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GGrayson Allenstarted
GDevin Bookerstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FOso Ighodarostarted
FRyan Dunnstarted
Utah Jazz
GSvi Mykhailiukstarted
GKeyonte Georgestarted
FLauri Markkanenstarted
FKyle Filipowskistarted
CWalker Kesslerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·UTAH
Oct 25, 2025 at DEN
last game
Oct 24, 2025 at SAC
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 27, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXCJ Huntley · g league - two-wayOut
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; strainOut
PHXDillon Brooks · right groin; sorenessQuestionable
Utah Jazz
UTAHGeorges Niang · left foot; fourth metatarsal stress reactionOut
UTAHIsaiah Collier · right hamstring; strainOut
UTAHJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHOscar Tshiebwe · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
PHX·UTAH
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−1.03
111.0
points / game
116.5
126.0
points allowed / game
106.5
1−2
season record
1−1
1−0
home record
1−0
0−2
away record
0−1
L2
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
2−8
43.7
FG%
49.5
32.3
3P%
35.5
42.0
rebounds / game
48.0
23.3
assists / game
31.5
18.0
turnovers / game
16.5
44.0
points in paint / game
53.0

Rating Trend

PHX · UTAH · 7 days
Phoenix SunsUtah Jazz
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · UTAH 0−10
Feb 7, 2025at PHXPHX 135 − 127
Jan 11, 2025at PHXPHX 114 − 106
Dec 13, 2024at UTAHPHX 134 − 126
Nov 12, 2024at UTAHPHX 120 − 112
Feb 8, 2024at PHXPHX 129 − 115
Nov 19, 2023at UTAHPHX 140 − 137
Nov 17, 2023at UTAHPHX 131 − 128
Oct 28, 2023at PHXPHX 126 − 104
Mar 27, 2023at UTAHPHX 117 − 103
Nov 26, 2022at PHXPHX 113 − 112

PHX · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Oct 25, 2025at DEN111 − 133L
Oct 24, 2025at LAC102 − 129L
Oct 22, 2025vs SAC120 − 116W
Apr 13, 2025at SAC98 − 109L
Apr 11, 2025vs SA117 − 98W
Apr 9, 2025vs OKC112 − 125L
Apr 8, 2025vs GS95 − 133L
Apr 6, 2025at NY98 − 112L
Apr 4, 2025at BOS103 − 123L
Apr 1, 2025at MIL123 − 133L

UTAH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Oct 24, 2025at SAC104 − 105L
Oct 22, 2025vs LAC129 − 108W
Apr 13, 2025at MIN105 − 116L
Apr 11, 2025vs OKC111 − 145L
Apr 9, 2025vs POR133 − 126W
Apr 6, 2025at ATL134 − 147L
Apr 4, 2025at IND112 − 140L
Apr 2, 2025at HOU105 − 143L
Mar 31, 2025at CHA106 − 110L
Mar 28, 2025at DEN93 − 129L