bayesRatings

Predators at Sharks

NHL · Saturday, Apr 4 · 9:00 PM CT · SAP Center at San Jose · Final NSH 6 – SJ 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NSH3036
SJ0213
Team box
NSH·SJ
34
shots
27
2 of 4
power play
0 of 4
52.9
faceoff %
47.1
25
hits
32
17
blocked shots
17
14
penalty minutes
14
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Filip ForsbergNSH212
Tyson JostNSH122
Nick LeddySJ112
Ryan O'ReillyNSH111
Roman JosiNSH024
Adam WilsbyNSH021
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Juuse SarosNSH2724.889
Yaroslav AskarovSJ3328.848

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SJ +3
NSH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: SJ 0 · NSH 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NSH 51%, SJ 49% · Updated Apr 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NSH 3.5 – 3.2 SJ
Expected total
6.7
PredatorsThe matchupSharks
−106Our fair odds+106
3.5Expected goals3.2
−0.16Power rating−0.36
3.0Goals / game3.1
3.3Allowed / game3.5
27.9Shots / game26.0
50.5Faceoff %47.6
19.4Hits / game21.4
35−40Season record36−38
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NSH chance · SJ chance
Our model fair51.4%48.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NSHNashville Predators−10651%————
SJSan Jose Sharks+10649%————
Spreadabout even
NSHNashville Predators−0.3our margin————
SJSan Jose Sharks+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.7
Over6.7our total————
Under6.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Nashville Predators by 6 goals: 1%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: 3%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 7%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 13%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 11%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 17%San Jose Sharks by 1 goal: 24%San Jose Sharks by 2 goals: 8%San Jose Sharks by 3 goals: 9%San Jose Sharks by 4 goals: 5%San Jose Sharks by 5 goals: 2%San Jose Sharks by 6 goals: <1%
← NSH wins bySJ wins by →
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more35%
Nashville Predators wins by 3 or more25%
San Jose Sharks wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.7 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 6.553%
Total over 7.533%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NSHJuuse Saros G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 3.09 GAAstarted
SJYaroslav Askarov G · last 5 starts: .875 save %, 3.77 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NSH·SJ
Apr 2 at LA
last game
Apr 2 vs TOR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
NSH·SJ
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.36
3.0
goals / game
3.1
3.3
goals allowed / game
3.5
35−40
season record
36−38
20−18
home record
20−17
15−22
away record
16−21
W1
streak
W4
6−4
last 10
4−6
27.9
shots / game
26.0
50.5
faceoff %
47.6
19.4
hits / game
21.4
12.0
blocked shots / game
15.0
5.3
takeaways / game
4.5
15.0
giveaways / game
16.4

Rating Trend

NSH · SJ · 150 days
Nashville PredatorsSan Jose Sharks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SJ 0−10
Mar 24at NSHNSH 6 − 3
Mar 11, 2025at SJNSH 3 − 2
Jan 23, 2025at SJNSH 6 − 5
Jan 21, 2025at NSHNSH 7 − 5
Mar 19, 2024at NSHNSH 8 − 2
Feb 24, 2024at SJNSH 4 − 2
Oct 21, 2023at NSHNSH 5 − 1
Feb 23, 2023at SJNSH 6 − 2
Oct 8, 2022at SJNSH 3 − 2
Oct 7, 2022at NSHNSH 4 − 1

NSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 2at LA5 − 4W
Mar 29at TB2 − 3L
Mar 28vs MTL1 − 4L
Mar 26vs NJ2 − 4L
Mar 24vs SJ6 − 3W
Mar 22at CHI3 − 2W
Mar 21vs VGK4 − 1W
Mar 19vs SEA3 − 1W
Mar 17at WPG4 − 3W
Mar 15at EDM1 − 3L

SJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak W4
Apr 2vs TOR4 − 1W
Apr 1vs ANA4 − 3W
Mar 30vs STL5 − 4W
Mar 28at CBJ3 − 2W
Mar 26at STL1 − 2L
Mar 24at NSH3 − 6L
Mar 21vs PHI1 − 4L
Mar 19vs BUF0 − 5L
Mar 17at EDM3 − 5L
Mar 15at OTT4 − 7L