bayesRatings

Maple Leafs at Avalanche

NHL · Saturday, Oct 10 · 6:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final TOR 6 – COL 3
← NHL / Oct 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
TOR1326
COL2103
Team box
TOR·COL
23
shots
33
2 of 4
power play
0 of 5
46.9
faceoff %
53.1
22
hits
16
22
blocked shots
10
12
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
William NylanderTOR234
Auston MatthewsTOR225
Nathan MacKinnonCOL208
Nick PaulTOR020
Brock NelsonCOL104
Easton CowanTOR102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Sergei BobrovskyTOR3330.909
Mackenzie BlackwoodCOL2217.773

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
TOR +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 1 · TOR 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 32%, COL 68% · Updated Oct 10

Expected margin
COL by 1.5
Expected score
COL 4.1 – 2.6 TOR
Expected total
6.7
Maple LeafsThe matchupAvalanche
+217Our fair odds−217
2.6Expected goals4.1
−0.15Power rating+0.52
2.8Goals / game5.8
3.0Allowed / game2.8
28.8Shots / game32.2
53.3Faceoff %50.4
18.6Hits / game18.0
2−3Season record3−1
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · COL chance
Our model fair31.6%68.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Maple Leafs+21732%————
COLColorado Avalanche−21768%————
SpreadCOL by 1.5
TORToronto Maple Leafs+1.5our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.7
Over6.7our total————
Under6.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.5 expected
Toronto Maple Leafs by 8 goals: <1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 7 goals: <1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 6 goals: <1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 5 goals: <1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 4 goals: 2%Toronto Maple Leafs by 3 goals: 4%Toronto Maple Leafs by 2 goals: 5%Toronto Maple Leafs by 1 goal: 19%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 16%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 19%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 6%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 2%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 8 goals: <1%
← TOR wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more54%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more41%
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 2 or more11%
Decided by one goal34%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.7 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 6.552%
Total over 7.534%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TORSergei Bobrovsky G · last 5 starts: .907 save %, 2.78 GAAstarted
COLMackenzie Blackwood G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 2.42 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·COL
Oct 8 at VGK
last game
Oct 8 at CGY
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
TOR·COL
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.52
2.8
goals / game
5.8
3.0
goals allowed / game
2.8
2−3
season record
3−1
2−2
home record
2−0
0−1
away record
1−1
L1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
5−5
28.8
shots / game
32.2
53.3
faceoff %
50.4
18.6
hits / game
18.0
14.4
blocked shots / game
14.0
4.2
takeaways / game
5.0
17.6
giveaways / game
17.5

Rating Trend

TOR · COL · 11 days
Toronto Maple LeafsColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 5−5
Jan 25at TORCOL 4 − 1
Jan 12at COLTOR 4 − 3 OT
Mar 19, 2025at TORTOR 2 − 1
Mar 8, 2025at COLCOL 7 − 4
Feb 24, 2024at COLTOR 4 − 3
Jan 13, 2024at TORCOL 5 − 3
Mar 15, 2023at TORCOL 2 − 1 SO
Dec 31, 2022at COLTOR 6 − 2
Jan 8, 2022at COLCOL 5 − 4 OT
Dec 1, 2021at TORTOR 8 − 3

TOR · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Oct 8at VGK3 − 4L
Oct 6vs NSH5 − 4W
Oct 3vs OTT2 − 3L
Sep 30vs NYI2 − 1W
Sep 29vs MTL2 − 3L
Apr 15at OTT1 − 3L
Apr 13vs DAL5 − 6L
Apr 11vs FLA2 − 6L
Apr 9at NYI3 − 5L
Apr 8vs WSH0 − 4L

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 8at CGY7 − 3W
Oct 7at WPG2 − 3L
Oct 3vs STL6 − 1W
Sep 30vs LA8 − 4W
May 26at VGK1 − 2L
May 24at VGK3 − 5L
May 22vs VGK1 − 3L
May 20vs VGK2 − 4L
May 13vs MIN4 − 3W
May 11at MIN5 − 2W