bayesRatings

Senators at Sharks

NHL · Saturday, Oct 31 · 3:00 PM CT · SAP Center at San Jose
← NHL / Oct 31

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
OTT 3.4 – 3.2 SJ
Expected total
6.6
SenatorsThe matchupSharks
−123Our fair odds+123
3.4Expected goals3.2
+0.12Power rating−0.27
3.1Goals / game2.9
3.1Allowed / game3.4
25.1Shots / game27.4
52.0Faceoff %47.2
25.4Hits / game25.6
8−6Season record7−7
5−5Last 104−6
Linus Ullmark G · Warren Foegele LW
William Eklund LWOutAdam Gaudette RW · Alexander Wennberg C
Igor Chernyshov LW · Kyle Keyser G
Quentin Musty LW

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OTT chance · SJ chance
Our model fair55.1%44.9%
Kalshi59.7%43.7%
Polymarket US60.7%43.7%
ProphetX59.2%43.5%
Novig59.0%42.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi12:39 PM CTPolymarket US12:39 PM CTProphetX12:39 PM CTNovig12:38 PM CT
Moneyline
OTTOttawa Senators−12355%−14859.7%−15460.7%−14559.2%−14459.0%
SJSan Jose Sharks+12345%+12943.7%+12943.7%+13043.5%+13842.0%
Spreadabout even
OTTOttawa Senators−0.2our margin−1.5 +16637.6%−1.5 +17336.6%−1.5 +16837.3%−1.5 +17836.0%
SJSan Jose Sharks+0.2our margin+1.5 −19966.6%+1.5 −20867.6%+1.5 −19265.7%+1.5 −18264.5%
Totalwe expect 6.6
Over6.6our totalo6.5 −11653.7%o6.5 −11653.7%o6.5 −10751.7%o6.5 −10451.0%
Under6.6our totalu6.5 −10751.8%u6.5 −10751.7%u6.5 −10250.5%u6.5 +10249.5%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: 1%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 2%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 7%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 12%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 10%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 23%San Jose Sharks by 1 goal: 18%San Jose Sharks by 2 goals: 9%San Jose Sharks by 3 goals: 10%San Jose Sharks by 4 goals: 5%San Jose Sharks by 5 goals: 2%San Jose Sharks by 6 goals: <1%
← OTT wins bySJ wins by →
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more32%
Ottawa Senators wins by 3 or more22%
San Jose Sharks wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.6 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.562%
Total over 6.551%
Total over 7.532%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
OTTSamuel Ersson G · last 5 starts: .862 save %, 4.30 GAAexpected
SJYaroslav Askarov G · last 5 starts: .926 save %, 2.44 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OTT·SJ
Oct 29 at LA
last game
Oct 29 vs VAN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Ottawa Senators
OTTHayden Hodgson RW · suspension, back about Nov 4Suspension
OTTAndre Burakovsky LW · lower body, back about Oct 31Day-to-day
OTTLinus Ullmark G · lower body strainIR
OTTWarren Foegele LW · right knee, back about Nov 14IR
OTTWilliam Eklund LW · ankle, back about Jan 5, 2027IR
San Jose Sharks
SJAdam Gaudette RWIR
SJAlexander Wennberg C · upper body, back about Nov 9IR
SJIgor Chernyshov LW · upper body, back about Nov 14IR
SJKyle Keyser G · upper body, back about Dec 1IR
SJQuentin Musty LW · upper body, back about Dec 1IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
OTT·SJ
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.27
3.1
goals / game
2.9
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.4
8−6
season record
7−7
5−2
home record
3−3
3−4
away record
4−4
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
25.1
shots / game
27.4
52.0
faceoff %
47.2
25.4
hits / game
25.6
16.0
blocked shots / game
14.4
4.4
takeaways / game
4.8
14.9
giveaways / game
18.6

Rating Trend

OTT · SJ · 32 days
Ottawa SenatorsSan Jose Sharks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SJ 4−6
Oct 22at OTTSJ 6 − 2
Mar 15at OTTOTT 7 − 4
Nov 22, 2025at SJOTT 3 − 2
Mar 1, 2025at OTTOTT 5 − 3
Nov 27, 2024at SJOTT 4 − 3
Mar 9, 2024at SJSJ 2 − 1
Jan 13, 2024at OTTOTT 5 − 4
Dec 3, 2022at OTTOTT 5 − 2
Nov 21, 2022at SJSJ 5 − 1
Nov 24, 2021at SJSJ 6 − 3

OTT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 29at LA5 − 6L
Oct 27at VGK1 − 4L
Oct 24vs NYR7 − 4W
Oct 22vs SJ2 − 6L
Oct 21vs FLA5 − 1W
Oct 17at PHI1 − 3L
Oct 15vs NYI2 − 1W
Oct 13vs STL2 − 7L
Oct 12at NJ4 − 1W
Oct 10vs NSH3 − 2W

SJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 29vs VAN3 − 2W
Oct 27vs BUF0 − 2L
Oct 24at BOS4 − 6L
Oct 22at OTT6 − 2W
Oct 20at MTL4 − 3W
Oct 19at TOR1 − 3L
Oct 17at DET3 − 4L
Oct 15at NSH3 − 2W
Oct 13vs BOS3 − 6L
Oct 10vs EDM1 − 3L