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Golden Knights at Bruins

NHL · Monday, Nov 2 · 6:00 PM CT · TD Garden · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 3.1 – 3.0 VGK
Expected total
6.1
Golden KnightsThe matchupBruins
+100Our fair odds−100
3.0Expected goals3.1
+0.21Power rating+0.15
3.6Goals / game3.6
2.8Allowed / game2.3
29.8Shots / game25.9
50.6Faceoff %53.6
21.0Hits / game22.0
9−5Season record9−5
6−4Last 107−3
Alex Pietrangelo D · Kai Uchacz C
Parker Wotherspoon D · Victor Olofsson LW
Out—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
VGK chance · BOS chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshi54.7%50.7%
Polymarket US52.7%51.7%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:29 AM CTPolymarket US4:29 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
VGKVegas Golden Knights+10050%−12154.7%−11252.7%——
BOSBoston Bruins−10050%−10350.7%−10751.7%——
Spreadabout even
VGKVegas Golden KnightsPKour margin−1.5 +18934.5%−1.5 −10350.7%——
BOSBoston BruinsPKour margin+1.5 −30675.3%+1.5 −71987.8%——
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our totalo9.5 −204295.3%o9.5 +14640.7%——
Under6.1our totalu9.5 −526898.1%u9.5 −347497.2%——

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Vegas Golden Knights by 6 goals: <1%Vegas Golden Knights by 5 goals: 2%Vegas Golden Knights by 4 goals: 5%Vegas Golden Knights by 3 goals: 11%Vegas Golden Knights by 2 goals: 10%Vegas Golden Knights by 1 goal: 22%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 21%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 10%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 11%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 6%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 2%Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%
← VGK wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more29%
Boston Bruins wins by 3 or more19%
Vegas Golden Knights wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.554%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
VGKCarter Hart G · last 5 starts: .888 save %, 2.79 GAAexpected
BOSJeremy Swayman G · last 5 starts: .889 save %, 2.78 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
VGK·BOS
Oct 30 vs NJ
last game
Oct 29 at STL
2 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
VGKCarter Hart G · undisclosedDay-to-day
VGKAlex Pietrangelo DIR
VGKKai Uchacz CIR
VGKParker Wotherspoon D · upper body, back about Nov 8IR
VGKVictor Olofsson LWIR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
VGK·BOS
+0.21
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
3.6
goals / game
3.6
2.8
goals allowed / game
2.3
9−5
season record
9−5
6−2
home record
5−1
3−3
away record
4−4
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
7−3
29.8
shots / game
25.9
50.6
faceoff %
53.6
21.0
hits / game
22.0
14.0
blocked shots / game
14.7
4.1
takeaways / game
4.1
17.9
giveaways / game
17.1

Rating Trend

VGK · BOS · 31 days
Vegas Golden KnightsBoston Bruins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 4−6
Jan 22at BOSBOS 4 − 3
Oct 16, 2025at VGKVGK 6 − 5
Mar 20, 2025at VGKVGK 5 − 1
Feb 8, 2025at BOSVGK 4 − 3
Feb 29, 2024at BOSBOS 5 − 4
Jan 11, 2024at VGKVGK 2 − 1 OT
Dec 11, 2022at VGKBOS 3 − 1
Dec 5, 2022at BOSVGK 4 − 3 SO
Mar 3, 2022at VGKBOS 5 − 2
Dec 14, 2021at BOSVGK 4 − 1

VGK · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 27vs OTT4 − 1W
Oct 24at CBJ1 − 2L
Oct 22at STL2 − 6L
Oct 20vs TB2 − 6L
Oct 17vs PIT6 − 2W
Oct 15vs CGY6 − 2W
Oct 13at NSH5 − 2W
Oct 12at MIN2 − 4L
Oct 10vs LA2 − 1W
Oct 8vs TOR4 − 3W

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Oct 29at STL1 − 4L
Oct 27at CAR1 − 2L
Oct 24vs SJ6 − 4W
Oct 22vs NSH6 − 0W
Oct 20at DAL2 − 3L
Oct 17at LA4 − 1W
Oct 16at ANA4 − 2W
Oct 13at SJ6 − 3W
Oct 10vs PHI5 − 1W
Oct 8vs UTAH6 − 1W