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Canucks at Jets

NHL · Thursday, Nov 5 · 7:00 PM CT · Canada Life Centre · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 5

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
WPG by 1.1
Expected score
WPG 3.8 – 2.7 VAN
Expected total
6.5
CanucksThe matchupJets
+197Our fair odds−197
2.7Expected goals3.8
−0.81Power rating−0.12
3.0Goals / game2.5
4.5Allowed / game3.2
21.0Shots / game26.5
47.2Faceoff %46.5
23.6Hits / game23.9
3−12Season record4−9
1−9Last 102−8
Filip Chytil C · Akil Thomas C
Mackenzie MacEachern LW · Thatcher Demko GOutGarrett Brown C · Josh Morrissey D
Nick Bjugstad C

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
VAN chance · WPG chance
Our model fair33.7%66.3%
Kalshi38.6%69.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi5:13 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
VANVancouver Canucks+19734%+15938.6%———
WPGWinnipeg Jets−19766%−22869.5%———
SpreadWPG by 1.1
VANVancouver Canucks+1.1our margin————
WPGWinnipeg Jets−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Winnipeg Jets by 1.1 expected
Vancouver Canucks by 7 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 3%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 6%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 6%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 17%Winnipeg Jets by 1 goal: 21%Winnipeg Jets by 2 goals: 12%Winnipeg Jets by 3 goals: 17%Winnipeg Jets by 4 goals: 10%Winnipeg Jets by 5 goals: 4%Winnipeg Jets by 6 goals: 1%Winnipeg Jets by 7 goals: <1%
← VAN wins byWPG wins by →
Winnipeg Jets wins by 2 or more46%
Winnipeg Jets wins by 3 or more34%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more16%
Decided by one goal38%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.531%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
VANLeevi Merilainen G · last 5 starts: .877 save %, 4.03 GAAexpected
WPGStuart Skinner G · last 5 starts: .882 save %, 3.41 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
VAN·WPG
Oct 29 at SJ
last game
Oct 30 at FLA
6 days
days of rest
5 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Vancouver Canucks
VANFilip Chytil C · upper bodyOut
VANAkil Thomas C · undisclosedIR
VANMackenzie MacEachern LW · undisclosedIR
VANThatcher Demko G · hip surgery, back about Dec 21IR
Winnipeg Jets
WPGGarrett Brown C · lower bodyIR
WPGJosh Morrissey D · right wristIR
WPGNick Bjugstad C · left pectoral surgery, back about Jan 19, 2027IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
VAN·WPG
−0.81
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
3.0
goals / game
2.5
4.5
goals allowed / game
3.2
3−12
season record
4−9
1−5
home record
2−5
2−7
away record
2−4
L1
streak
L7
1−9
last 10
2−8
21.0
shots / game
26.5
47.2
faceoff %
46.5
23.6
hits / game
23.9
14.4
blocked shots / game
13.0
4.3
takeaways / game
4.5
16.9
giveaways / game
16.2

Rating Trend

VAN · WPG · 31 days
Vancouver CanucksWinnipeg Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WPG 8−2
Mar 7at WPGWPG 3 − 2 OT
Feb 25at VANWPG 3 − 2 OT
Nov 11, 2025at VANWPG 5 − 3
Mar 30, 2025at WPGWPG 3 − 1
Mar 18, 2025at VANVAN 6 − 2
Jan 14, 2025at WPGWPG 6 − 1
Apr 18, 2024at WPGWPG 4 − 2
Mar 9, 2024at VANVAN 5 − 0
Feb 17, 2024at VANWPG 4 − 2
Jan 8, 2023at WPGWPG 7 − 4

VAN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Oct 29at SJ2 − 3L
Oct 27at ANA6 − 5W
Oct 25vs MIN2 − 4L
Oct 22vs DET2 − 5L
Oct 20vs CAR3 − 6L
Oct 17at TB2 − 4L
Oct 15at FLA2 − 3L
Oct 13at NYI2 − 3L
Oct 11at NYR2 − 6L
Oct 10at NJ1 − 4L

WPG · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Oct 29at TB4 − 6L
Oct 27vs FLA1 − 5L
Oct 25vs MTL1 − 2L
Oct 22at DAL2 − 3L
Oct 20at STL1 − 2L
Oct 17vs CAR2 − 3L
Oct 15at CHI3 − 4L
Oct 13vs MIN5 − 2W
Oct 9vs ANA1 − 5L
Oct 7vs COL3 − 2W