bayesRatings

Canucks at Ducks

NHL · Tuesday, Oct 27 · 9:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final VAN 6 – ANA 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
VAN01416
ANA13105
Team box
VAN·ANA
33
shots
23
1 of 7
power play
1 of 2
36.8
faceoff %
63.2
25
hits
19
9
blocked shots
12
16
penalty minutes
26
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Leevi MerilainenVAN2318.783
Lukas DostalANA3327.818

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +3
VAN +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: ANA 3 · VAN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was VAN 33%, ANA 67% · Updated Oct 27

Expected margin
ANA by 1.1
Expected score
ANA 4.0 – 2.9 VAN
Expected total
6.9
CanucksThe matchupDucks
+207Our fair odds−207
2.9Expected goals4.0
−0.82Power rating−0.12
2.8Goals / game2.9
4.6Allowed / game3.4
19.8Shots / game23.5
47.7Faceoff %44.6
24.0Hits / game26.3
2−11Season record5−6
0−10Last 104−6
Akil Thomas · Mackenzie MacEachern
Thatcher Demko
OutIan Moore · Pavel Mintyukov
Ryan Poehling · Troy Terry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
VAN chance · ANA chance
Our model fair32.6%67.4%
Kalshi35.6%68.5%
Polymarket US35.6%68.5%
ProphetX36.5%65.7%
Novig34.5%66.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 8:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 8:58 PM CTNovigpre-game · 8:58 PM CT
Moneyline
VANVancouver Canucks+20733%+18135.6%+18135.6%+17436.5%+19034.5%
ANAAnaheim Ducks−20767%−21868.5%−21868.5%−19265.7%−19466.0%
SpreadANA by 1.1
VANVancouver Canucks+1.1our margin+1.5 −13156.7%+1.5 −13156.7%+1.5 −12956.3%+1.5 −12255.0%
ANAAnaheim Ducks−1.1our margin−1.5 +10947.7%−1.5 +11047.7%−1.5 +11546.5%−1.5 +12045.5%
Totalwe expect 6.9
Over6.9our totalo6.5 −13757.7%o6.5 −14258.7%o6.5 −14158.5%o6.5 −13357.0%
Under6.9our totalu6.5 +11446.7%u6.5 +11945.7%u6.5 +12644.2%u6.5 +12744.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Anaheim Ducks by 1.1 expected
Vancouver Canucks by 7 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 3%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 6%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 6%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 15%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 22%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 12%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 17%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 10%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 5%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 7 goals: 1%
← VAN wins byANA wins by →
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more46%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 3 or more34%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more17%
Decided by one goal37%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.9 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 7%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 17%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: <1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 6.556%
Total over 7.536%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
VANLeevi Merilainen G · last 5 starts: .904 save %, 3.69 GAAstarted
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .885 save %, 3.05 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
VAN·ANA
Oct 25 vs MIN
last game
Oct 24 at PHI
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Injury list before the game · Oct 27, 2026, 7:40 PM CT
Vancouver Canucks
VANAkil Thomas · undisclosed, back about Nov 9IR
VANMackenzie MacEachern · undisclosed, back about Nov 7IR
VANThatcher Demko · hip, back about Dec 21IR
Anaheim Ducks
ANAIan Moore · lower body, back about Nov 8IR
ANAPavel Mintyukov · lower body, back about Oct 29IR
ANARyan Poehling · lower body, back about Nov 25IR
ANATroy Terry · hip, back about Nov 21IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
VAN·ANA
−0.82
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
2.8
goals / game
2.9
4.6
goals allowed / game
3.4
2−11
season record
5−6
1−5
home record
1−3
1−6
away record
4−3
L10
streak
W1
0−10
last 10
4−6
19.8
shots / game
23.5
47.7
faceoff %
44.6
24.0
hits / game
26.3
15.2
blocked shots / game
16.2
4.5
takeaways / game
3.1
16.6
giveaways / game
14.5

Rating Trend

VAN · ANA · 28 days
Vancouver CanucksAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ANA 2−8
Apr 12at ANAVAN 4 − 3 OT
Mar 24at VANANA 5 − 3
Jan 29at VANVAN 2 − 0
Nov 26, 2025at ANAVAN 5 − 4
Apr 5, 2025at VANVAN 6 − 2
Mar 5, 2025at VANVAN 3 − 2
Feb 27, 2025at ANAANA 5 − 2
Nov 5, 2024at ANAVAN 5 − 1
Mar 31, 2024at VANVAN 3 − 2
Mar 3, 2024at ANAVAN 2 − 1

VAN · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Oct 25vs MIN2 − 4L
Oct 22vs DET2 − 5L
Oct 20vs CAR3 − 6L
Oct 17at TB2 − 4L
Oct 15at FLA2 − 3L
Oct 13at NYI2 − 3L
Oct 11at NYR2 − 6L
Oct 10at NJ1 − 4L
Oct 8at CAR2 − 7L
Oct 4vs VGK2 − 3L

ANA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 24at PHI5 − 4W
Oct 22at NJ1 − 4L
Oct 20at NYI2 − 3L
Oct 19at NYR2 − 5L
Oct 16vs BOS2 − 4L
Oct 13vs CGY2 − 4L
Oct 10at CGY4 − 2W
Oct 9at WPG5 − 1W
Oct 7vs EDM2 − 5L
Oct 4vs FLA3 − 2W