bayesRatings

Canucks at Rangers

NHL · Sunday, Oct 11 · 5:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final VAN 2 – NYR 6
← NHL / Oct 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
VAN1102
NYR1236
Team box
VAN·NYR
21
shots
25
0 of 1
power play
1 of 2
38.0
faceoff %
62.0
33
hits
22
14
blocked shots
14
4
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Tye KartyeNYR203
Will CuylleNYR203
Alexis LafreniereNYR112
Gabe PerreaultNYR112
Mika ZibanejadNYR023
J.T. MillerNYR021
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Kevin LankinenVAN2519.760
Dylan GarandNYR2119.905

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYR +4
VAN +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYR 4 · VAN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was VAN 33%, NYR 67% · Updated Oct 11

Expected margin
NYR by 1.4
Expected score
NYR 3.9 – 2.5 VAN
Expected total
6.4
CanucksThe matchupRangers
+202Our fair odds−202
2.5Expected goals3.9
−0.61Power rating−0.01
3.7Goals / game2.8
4.8Allowed / game1.8
22.0Shots / game23.0
49.6Faceoff %52.3
23.8Hits / game28.3
2−4Season record4−2
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
VAN chance · NYR chance
Our model fair33.1%66.9%
Kalshi30.4%73.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
VANVancouver Canucks+20233%+22930.4%———
NYRNew York Rangers−20267%−27673.4%———
SpreadNYR by 1.4
VANVancouver Canucks+1.4our margin————
NYRNew York Rangers−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Rangers by 1.4 expected
Vancouver Canucks by 7 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 2%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 4%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 5%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 20%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 16%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 13%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 19%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 12%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 5%New York Rangers by 6 goals: 1%New York Rangers by 7 goals: 1%
← VAN wins byNYR wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more52%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more39%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more12%
Decided by one goal36%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.560%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .849 save %, 4.90 GAAstarted
NYRDylan Garand G · last 5 starts: .954 save %, 1.31 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
VAN·NYR
Oct 10 at NJ
last game
Oct 9 at WSH
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
VAN·NYR
−0.61
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
3.7
goals / game
2.8
4.8
goals allowed / game
1.8
2−4
season record
4−2
1−2
home record
3−0
1−2
away record
1−2
L3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
22.0
shots / game
23.0
49.6
faceoff %
52.3
23.8
hits / game
28.3
16.0
blocked shots / game
15.7
4.5
takeaways / game
4.5
16.3
giveaways / game
14.8

Rating Trend

VAN · NYR · 12 days
Vancouver CanucksNew York Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYR 6−4
Dec 16, 2025at NYRVAN 3 − 0
Oct 28, 2025at VANNYR 2 − 0
Mar 22, 2025at NYRNYR 5 − 3
Nov 19, 2024at VANNYR 4 − 3
Jan 8, 2024at NYRVAN 6 − 3
Oct 28, 2023at VANNYR 4 − 3 OT
Feb 15, 2023at VANNYR 6 − 4
Feb 8, 2023at NYRNYR 4 − 3
Feb 27, 2022at NYRVAN 5 − 2
Nov 2, 2021at VANVAN 3 − 2 OT

VAN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Oct 10at NJ1 − 4L
Oct 8at CAR2 − 7L
Oct 4vs VGK2 − 3L
Oct 3vs CGY4 − 1W
Oct 1vs EDM7 − 9L
Sep 29at EDM6 − 5W
Apr 16at EDM1 − 6L
Apr 14vs LA4 − 3W
Apr 12at ANA4 − 3W
Apr 11at SJ4 − 3W

NYR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 9at WSH1 − 3L
Oct 6vs NYI5 − 2W
Oct 4vs UTAH4 − 2W
Oct 2at DET2 − 0W
Oct 1vs TB5 − 1W
Sep 29at BOS0 − 3L
Apr 15at TB4 − 2W
Apr 13at FLA2 − 3L
Apr 11at DAL0 − 2L
Apr 8vs BUF3 − 5L