bayesRatings

Islanders at Rangers

NHL · Tuesday, Oct 6 · 6:30 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final NYI 2 – NYR 5
← NHL / Oct 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYI0202
NYR1225
Team box
NYI·NYR
19
shots
24
1 of 4
power play
1 of 3
50.0
faceoff %
50.0
18
hits
27
14
blocked shots
14
18
penalty minutes
20
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Alexis LafreniereNYR313
Oliver BjorkstrandNYR203
Mika ZibanejadNYR023
Vladislav GavrikovNYR023
Brayden SchennNYI022
Bo HorvatNYI102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Semyon VarlamovNYI2219.864
Igor ShesterkinNYR1917.895

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYR +3
NYI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYR 3 · NYI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYI 46%, NYR 54% · Updated Oct 6

Expected margin
NYR by 0.5
Expected score
NYR 3.0 – 2.5 NYI
Expected total
5.5
IslandersThe matchupRangers
+115Our fair odds−115
2.5Expected goals3.0
−0.03Power rating−0.02
3.5Goals / game2.8
1.0Allowed / game1.5
29.5Shots / game23.0
48.5Faceoff %52.5
24.5Hits / game27.0
1−1Season record3−1
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYI chance · NYR chance
Our model fair46.4%53.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYINew York Islanders+11546%————
NYRNew York Rangers−11554%————
SpreadNYR by 0.5
NYINew York Islanders+0.5our margin————
NYRNew York Rangers−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.5
Over5.5our total————
Under5.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Rangers by 0.5 expected
New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 1%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 3%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 7%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 8%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 26%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 18%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 12%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 14%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 7%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 3%New York Rangers by 6 goals: 1%
← NYI wins byNYR wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more37%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more25%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.5 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 16%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 16%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 7%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.567%
Total over 5.544%
Total over 6.533%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYISemyon Varlamov G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 2.57 GAAstarted
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · last 5 starts: .917 save %, 2.02 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYI·NYR
Oct 3 vs NJ
last game
Oct 4 vs UTAH
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
NYI·NYR
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
3.5
goals / game
2.8
1.0
goals allowed / game
1.5
1−1
season record
3−1
1−0
home record
2−0
0−1
away record
1−1
W1
streak
W3
2−8
last 10
6−4
29.5
shots / game
23.0
48.5
faceoff %
52.5
24.5
hits / game
27.0
12.5
blocked shots / game
17.8
6.5
takeaways / game
4.0
16.5
giveaways / game
16.8

Rating Trend

NYI · NYR · 7 days
New York IslandersNew York Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYR 5−5
Jan 29at NYRNYI 2 − 1
Jan 28at NYINYI 5 − 2
Dec 27, 2025at NYINYI 2 − 0
Nov 8, 2025at NYRNYI 5 − 0
Apr 10, 2025at NYINYR 9 − 2
Mar 3, 2025at NYRNYR 4 − 0
Feb 25, 2025at NYINYR 5 − 1
Nov 3, 2024at NYRNYR 5 − 2
Apr 13, 2024at NYRNYR 3 − 2 SO
Apr 9, 2024at NYINYI 4 − 2

NYI · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Oct 3vs NJ6 − 0W
Sep 30at TOR1 − 2L
Apr 14vs CAR1 − 2L
Apr 12vs MTL1 − 4L
Apr 11vs OTT0 − 3L
Apr 9vs TOR5 − 3W
Apr 4at CAR3 − 4L
Apr 3vs PHI1 − 4L
Mar 31at BUF3 − 4L
Mar 30vs PIT3 − 8L

NYR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Oct 4vs UTAH4 − 2W
Oct 2at DET2 − 0W
Oct 1vs TB5 − 1W
Sep 29at BOS0 − 3L
Apr 15at TB4 − 2W
Apr 13at FLA2 − 3L
Apr 11at DAL0 − 2L
Apr 8vs BUF3 − 5L
Apr 5vs WSH8 − 1W
Apr 4vs DET4 − 1W