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Rangers at Capitals

NHL · Friday, Oct 9 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final NYR 1 – WSH 3
← NHL / Oct 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYR1001
WSH0213
Team box
NYR·WSH
22
shots
27
1 of 3
power play
0 of 3
53.7
faceoff %
46.3
35
hits
22
9
blocked shots
12
6
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Boone JennerWSH103
Tom WilsonWSH103
Timothy LiljegrenWSH102
Alexis LafreniereNYR101
Pavel DorofeyevNYR014
Dylan StromeWSH014
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Dylan GarandNYR1211.917
Igor ShesterkinNYR1413.929
Logan ThompsonWSH2221.955

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
NYR +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: WSH 2 · NYR 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 43%, WSH 57% · Updated Oct 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 3.2 – 2.8 NYR
Expected total
6.0
RangersThe matchupCapitals
+132Our fair odds−132
2.8Expected goals3.2
+0.01Power rating+0.16
3.2Goals / game3.7
1.6Allowed / game2.7
23.2Shots / game25.0
52.0Faceoff %49.7
27.0Hits / game21.7
4−1Season record2−1
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · WSH chance
Our model fair43.1%56.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers+13243%————
WSHWashington Capitals−13257%————
Spreadabout even
NYRNew York Rangers+0.4our margin————
WSHWashington Capitals−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 1%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 4%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 9%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 8%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 20%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 23%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 11%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 13%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 7%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 2%Washington Capitals by 6 goals: <1%
← NYR wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more34%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more23%
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRDylan Garand G · last 4 starts: .958 save %, 1.22 GAAstarted
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .933 save %, 1.60 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·WSH
Oct 6 vs NYI
last game
Oct 7 vs PIT
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
NYR·WSH
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
3.2
goals / game
3.7
1.6
goals allowed / game
2.7
4−1
season record
2−1
3−0
home record
1−0
1−1
away record
1−1
W4
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
7−3
23.2
shots / game
25.0
52.0
faceoff %
49.7
27.0
hits / game
21.7
17.0
blocked shots / game
19.0
4.4
takeaways / game
4.0
16.0
giveaways / game
13.7

Rating Trend

NYR · WSH · 10 days
New York RangersWashington Capitals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 5−5
Apr 5at NYRNYR 8 − 1
Dec 31, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 3
Dec 23, 2025at WSHNYR 7 − 3
Oct 12, 2025at NYRWSH 1 − 0
Mar 5, 2025at NYRWSH 3 − 2 OT
Jan 4, 2025at WSHWSH 7 − 4
Oct 29, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 3
Apr 28, 2024at WSHNYR 4 − 2post
Apr 26, 2024at WSHNYR 3 − 1post
Apr 23, 2024at NYRNYR 4 − 3post

NYR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Oct 6vs NYI5 − 2W
Oct 4vs UTAH4 − 2W
Oct 2at DET2 − 0W
Oct 1vs TB5 − 1W
Sep 29at BOS0 − 3L
Apr 15at TB4 − 2W
Apr 13at FLA2 − 3L
Apr 11at DAL0 − 2L
Apr 8vs BUF3 − 5L
Apr 5vs WSH8 − 1W

WSH · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Oct 7vs PIT5 − 3W
Oct 3at TB1 − 3L
Oct 2at CAR5 − 2W
Apr 14at CBJ2 − 1W
Apr 12vs PIT3 − 0W
Apr 11at PIT6 − 3W
Apr 8at TOR4 − 0W
Apr 5at NYR1 − 8L
Apr 4vs BUF6 − 2W
Apr 2at NJ3 − 7L