bayesRatings

Capitals at Lightning

NHL · Saturday, Oct 3 · 6:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final WSH 1 – TB 3
← NHL / Oct 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WSH0101
TB2013
Team box
WSH·TB
21
shots
30
0 of 2
power play
0 of 3
37.5
faceoff %
62.5
24
hits
30
14
blocked shots
19
25
penalty minutes
13
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Jake GuentzelTB122
Brandon HagelTB026
Charle-Edouard D'AstousTB103
Conor GeekieTB102
Justin SourdifWSH101
Nikita KucherovTB013
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Charlie LindgrenWSH2927.931
Andrei VasilevskiyTB2120.952

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
WSH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TB 2 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 47%, TB 53% · Updated Oct 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 3.2 – 2.9 WSH
Expected total
6.1
CapitalsThe matchupLightning
+114Our fair odds−114
2.9Expected goals3.2
+0.15Power rating+0.17
5.0Goals / game1.0
2.0Allowed / game5.0
27.0Shots / game24.0
53.2Faceoff %38.6
19.0Hits / game31.0
1−0Season record0−1
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · TB chance
Our model fair46.8%53.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Capitals+11447%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−11453%————
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Capitals+0.3our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Capitals by 6 goals: <1%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 1%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 4%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 9%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 9%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 23%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 20%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 7%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 2%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: <1%
← WSH wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more34%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more23%
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.554%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WSHCharlie Lindgren G · last 5 starts: .850 save %, 4.33 GAAstarted
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .895 save %, 2.20 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·TB
Oct 2 at CAR
last game
Oct 1 at NYR
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
WSH·TB
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
5.0
goals / game
1.0
2.0
goals allowed / game
5.0
1−0
season record
0−1
0−0
home record
0−0
1−0
away record
0−1
W1
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
4−6
27.0
shots / game
24.0
53.2
faceoff %
38.6
19.0
hits / game
31.0
28.0
blocked shots / game
16.0
3.0
takeaways / game
5.0
18.0
giveaways / game
22.0

Rating Trend

WSH · TB · 4 days
Washington CapitalsTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 6−4
Nov 22, 2025at WSHTB 5 − 3
Nov 8, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
Oct 14, 2025at WSHWSH 3 − 2 OT
Mar 1, 2025at WSHTB 3 − 1
Nov 27, 2024at TBWSH 5 − 4
Oct 26, 2024at TBTB 3 − 0
Apr 13, 2024at WSHWSH 4 − 2
Feb 22, 2024at TBWSH 5 − 3
Dec 23, 2023at WSHTB 2 − 1 SO
Mar 30, 2023at TBTB 5 − 1

WSH · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Oct 2at CAR5 − 2W
Apr 14at CBJ2 − 1W
Apr 12vs PIT3 − 0W
Apr 11at PIT6 − 3W
Apr 8at TOR4 − 0W
Apr 5at NYR1 − 8L
Apr 4vs BUF6 − 2W
Apr 2at NJ3 − 7L
Mar 31vs PHI6 − 4W
Mar 28at VGK5 − 4W

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Oct 1at NYR1 − 5L
May 3vs MTL1 − 2L
May 1at MTL1 − 0W
Apr 29vs MTL2 − 3L
Apr 26at MTL3 − 2W
Apr 24at MTL2 − 3L
Apr 21vs MTL3 − 2W
Apr 19vs MTL3 − 4L
Apr 15vs NYR2 − 4L
Apr 13vs DET4 − 3W