bayesRatings

Giants at Guardians

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 19 · 5:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final SF 1 – CLE 0
← MLB / Aug 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000100000171
CLE000000000060
Team box
SF·CLE
7
hits
6
0
home runs
0
0
walks
2
15
strikeouts
8
135
pitches thrown
130
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willy AdamesSF3-4000
Angel MartinezCLE2-4000
Angel GenaoCLE2-4000
Victor BericotoSF1-3001
Jung Hoo LeeSF2-4000
Austin HedgesCLE1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matt WilkinsonSF2.01000
Adrian Houser (W)SF5.04023
Dylan Smith (S)SF2.01005
Parker Messick (L)CLE6.261010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 0 · SF 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 45%, CLE 55% · Updated Aug 19

Expected margin
CLE by 0.5
Expected score
CLE 4.0 – 3.5 SF
Expected total
7.6
GiantsThe matchupGuardians
+120Our fair odds−120
3.5Expected runs4.0
−0.14Power rating−0.03
4.1Runs / game4.0
4.7Allowed / game4.2
8.4Hits / game7.7
1.10Home runs / game0.95
2.6Walks drawn / game3.6
51−74Season record61−65
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · CLE chance
Our model fair45.4%54.6%
Kalshi34.5%69.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+12045%+18934.5%———
CLECleveland Guardians−12055%−22869.5%———
SpreadCLE by 0.5
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.5our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.6
Over7.6our total————
Under7.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.5 expected
San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← SF wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more39%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.6 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.566%
Total over 7.545%
Total over 9.527%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFMatt Wilkinson SP · no recent starts on recordstarted
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·CLE
Aug 18 at CLE
last game
Aug 18 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 125+ games
SF·CLE
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.1
runs / game
4.0
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.2
51−74
season record
61−65
29−33
home record
30−33
22−41
away record
31−32
L2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
4−6
8.4
hits / game
7.7
1.10
home runs / game
0.95
2.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.65
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

SF · CLE · 144 days
San Francisco GiantsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 6−4
Aug 18at CLECLE 8 − 1
Jun 19, 2025at SFSF 2 − 1
Jun 18, 2025at SFCLE 4 − 2
Jun 17, 2025at SFCLE 3 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at CLECLE 5 − 4
Jul 6, 2024at CLECLE 5 − 4
Jul 5, 2024at CLESF 4 − 2
Sep 13, 2023at SFSF 6 − 5
Sep 12, 2023at SFCLE 3 − 1
Sep 11, 2023at SFSF 5 − 4

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Aug 18at CLE1 − 8L
Aug 16vs COL7 − 13L
Aug 15vs COL7 − 1W
Aug 14vs COL2 − 5L
Aug 12vs HOU1 − 2L
Aug 11vs HOU4 − 1W
Aug 10vs HOU3 − 6L
Aug 9vs DET1 − 3L
Aug 8vs DET0 − 8L
Aug 7vs DET5 − 2W

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 18vs SF8 − 1W
Aug 16vs SD0 − 5L
Aug 15vs SD6 − 1W
Aug 14vs SD5 − 7L
Aug 13at DET0 − 3L
Aug 12at DET6 − 4W
Aug 11at DET4 − 6L
Aug 9at CHW3 − 5L
Aug 8at CHW3 − 6L
Aug 7at CHW8 − 2W