bayesRatings

Giants at Guardians

MLB · Thursday, Aug 20 · 12:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final SF 2 – CLE 5
← MLB / Aug 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000200000252
CLE30000101590
Team box
SF·CLE
5
hits
9
1
home runs
0
6
walks
4
13
strikeouts
6
139
pitches thrown
149
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willy AdamesSF1-4112
Patrick BaileyCLE2-3101
Jose RamirezCLE1-4101
Brayan RocchioCLE1-4001
Steven KwanCLE1-2101
Nathaniel LoweCLE0-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Landen Roupp (L)SF5.15342
Gavin Williams (W)CLE5.242311
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.00021

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 3 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 46%, CLE 54% · Updated Aug 20

Expected margin
CLE by 0.5
Expected score
CLE 4.0 – 3.5 SF
Expected total
7.5
GiantsThe matchupGuardians
+119Our fair odds−119
3.5Expected runs4.0
−0.14Power rating−0.03
4.1Runs / game4.0
4.6Allowed / game4.2
8.4Hits / game7.7
1.10Home runs / game0.94
2.6Walks drawn / game3.6
52−74Season record61−66
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · CLE chance
Our model fair45.8%54.2%
Kalshi36.6%68.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11946%+17336.6%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11954%−21868.5%———
SpreadCLE by 0.5
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.5our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.5
Over7.5our total————
Under7.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.5 expected
San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← SF wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more39%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run32%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.5 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.565%
Total over 7.544%
Total over 9.526%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFLanden Roupp SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·CLE
Aug 19 at CLE
last game
Aug 19 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 126+ games
SF·CLE
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.1
runs / game
4.0
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.2
52−74
season record
61−66
29−33
home record
30−34
23−41
away record
31−32
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
3−7
8.4
hits / game
7.7
1.10
home runs / game
0.94
2.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.65
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

SF · CLE · 145 days
San Francisco GiantsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 6−4
Aug 19at CLESF 1 − 0
Aug 18at CLECLE 8 − 1
Jun 19, 2025at SFSF 2 − 1
Jun 18, 2025at SFCLE 4 − 2
Jun 17, 2025at SFCLE 3 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at CLECLE 5 − 4
Jul 6, 2024at CLECLE 5 − 4
Jul 5, 2024at CLESF 4 − 2
Sep 13, 2023at SFSF 6 − 5
Sep 12, 2023at SFCLE 3 − 1

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Aug 19at CLE1 − 0W
Aug 18at CLE1 − 8L
Aug 16vs COL7 − 13L
Aug 15vs COL7 − 1W
Aug 14vs COL2 − 5L
Aug 12vs HOU1 − 2L
Aug 11vs HOU4 − 1W
Aug 10vs HOU3 − 6L
Aug 9vs DET1 − 3L
Aug 8vs DET0 − 8L

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Aug 19vs SF0 − 1L
Aug 18vs SF8 − 1W
Aug 16vs SD0 − 5L
Aug 15vs SD6 − 1W
Aug 14vs SD5 − 7L
Aug 13at DET0 − 3L
Aug 12at DET6 − 4W
Aug 11at DET4 − 6L
Aug 9at CHW3 − 5L
Aug 8at CHW3 − 6L