bayesRatings

Astros at Phillies

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 9 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final HOU 7 – PHI 11
← MLB / Sep 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU0042001007122
PHI0040160011122
Team box
HOU·PHI
12
hits
12
2
home runs
2
0
walks
4
6
strikeouts
12
175
pitches thrown
131
2
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Isaac ParedesHOU2-4113
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-5114
Cam SmithHOU2-4212
Trea TurnerPHI2-5212
Yordan AlvarezHOU2-5101
Yainer DiazHOU2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Hunter BrownHOU5.07407
Bryan King (L)HOU0.03300
Cristopher Sanchez (W)PHI6.010603

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +5
HOU +5
123456789
largest lead: PHI 5 · HOU 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 44%, PHI 56% · Updated Sep 9

Expected margin
PHI by 0.6
Expected score
PHI 4.6 – 4.0 HOU
Expected total
8.6
AstrosThe matchupPhillies
+129Our fair odds−129
4.0Expected runs4.6
−0.02Power rating+0.17
4.5Runs / game4.5
4.8Allowed / game4.2
8.1Hits / game8.1
1.31Home runs / game1.18
3.3Walks drawn / game3.2
74−71Season record81−64
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · PHI chance
Our model fair43.6%56.4%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+12944%+12444.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12956%−14859.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.6
HOUHouston Astros+0.6our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.6 expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 13%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 16%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more41%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more30%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUHunter Brown SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 1.96 ERA, 21 Kstarted
PHICristopher Sanchez SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·PHI
Sep 8 at PHI
last game
Sep 8 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 145+ games
HOU·PHI
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
4.5
runs / game
4.5
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.2
74−71
season record
81−64
37−38
home record
40−33
37−33
away record
41−31
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.1
1.31
home runs / game
1.18
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.44
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

HOU · PHI · 165 days
Houston AstrosPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 4−6
Sep 8at PHIHOU 6 − 5
Jun 26, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 1
Jun 25, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 0
Jun 24, 2025at HOUHOU 1 − 0
Aug 28, 2024at PHIHOU 10 − 0
Aug 27, 2024at PHIPHI 5 − 0
Aug 26, 2024at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Apr 30, 2023at HOUHOU 4 − 3
Apr 29, 2023at HOUPHI 6 − 1
Apr 28, 2023at HOUPHI 3 − 1

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 8at PHI6 − 5W
Sep 6vs ARI2 − 3L
Sep 5vs ARI3 − 4L
Sep 4vs ARI3 − 1W
Sep 3vs CHW6 − 2W
Sep 2vs CHW2 − 0W
Sep 1vs CHW1 − 5L
Aug 31vs CHW6 − 3W
Aug 30at NYM6 − 3W
Aug 29at NYM2 − 6L

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 8vs HOU5 − 6L
Sep 7vs ATL1 − 0W
Sep 6vs ATL4 − 5L
Sep 5vs ATL4 − 2W
Sep 4vs ATL2 − 5L
Sep 2at ARI0 − 1L
Sep 1at ARI7 − 1W
Aug 31at ARI2 − 1W
Aug 30at LAA5 − 2W
Aug 29at LAA4 − 2W