bayesRatings

Braves at Phillies

MLB · Friday, Sep 4 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final ATL 5 – PHI 2
← MLB / Sep 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL030000020580
PHI010100000261
Team box
ATL·PHI
8
hits
6
1
home runs
1
4
walks
1
6
strikeouts
10
136
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mauricio DubonATL2-4212
Alec BohmPHI2-4112
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL3-5001
Austin RileyATL1-4101
Luis ArraezPHI2-4100
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chris Sale (W)ATL6.06217
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.00002
Cristopher Sanchez (L)PHI6.05335

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: PHI 0 · ATL 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 48%, PHI 52% · Updated Sep 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.2 – 4.2 ATL
Expected total
8.4
BravesThe matchupPhillies
+110Our fair odds−110
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.16Power rating+0.18
4.7Runs / game4.5
3.8Allowed / game4.2
8.4Hits / game8.1
1.27Home runs / game1.18
2.9Walks drawn / game3.2
83−57Season record79−61
8−2Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · PHI chance
Our model fair47.7%52.3%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves+11048%+10149.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11052%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATLAtlanta Braves+0.1our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 16%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more36%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more26%
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 1.29 ERA, 26 Kstarted
PHICristopher Sanchez SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 2.29 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·PHI
Sep 2 at WSH
last game
Sep 2 at ARI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 140+ games
ATL·PHI
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
4.7
runs / game
4.5
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.2
83−57
season record
79−61
48−24
home record
38−30
35−33
away record
41−31
W1
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
7−3
8.4
hits / game
8.1
1.27
home runs / game
1.18
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.44
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

ATL · PHI · 160 days
Atlanta BravesPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 4−6
Apr 26at ATLATL 6 − 2
Apr 25at ATLPHI 8 − 5
Apr 24at ATLATL 5 − 3
Apr 19at PHIATL 4 − 2
Apr 18at PHIATL 3 − 1
Apr 17at PHIATL 9 − 0
Aug 31, 2025at PHIATL 3 − 1
Aug 30, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Aug 29, 2025at PHIPHI 2 − 1
Aug 28, 2025at PHIPHI 19 − 4

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Sep 2at WSH9 − 0W
Sep 1at WSH5 − 9L
Aug 31vs SF3 − 7L
Aug 30vs COL3 − 2W
Aug 29vs COL2 − 1W
Aug 28vs COL6 − 4W
Aug 27vs LAD1 − 0W
Aug 26vs LAD6 − 5W
Aug 25vs LAD4 − 3W
Aug 23at MIL4 − 2W

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 2at ARI0 − 1L
Sep 1at ARI7 − 1W
Aug 31at ARI2 − 1W
Aug 30at LAA5 − 2W
Aug 29at LAA4 − 2W
Aug 28at LAA5 − 3W
Aug 26at SEA6 − 0W
Aug 25at SEA1 − 4L
Aug 24at SEA2 − 9L
Aug 23vs STL6 − 4W