bayesRatings

Rockies at Braves

MLB · Sunday, Aug 30 · 12:35 PM CT · Truist Park · Final COL 2 – ATL 3
← MLB / Aug 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
COL0000010100271
ATL00200000013100
Team box
COL·ATL
7
hits
10
1
home runs
1
0
walks
4
12
strikeouts
11
145
pitches thrown
129
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sean MurphyATL1-3111
Jake McCarthyCOL1-4111
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL2-3001
Matt OlsonATL1-5001
Drake BaldwinATL2-5000
Connor NorbyCOL1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mason AdamsCOL5.05225
Ryan Feltner (L)COL4.05026
Tyler MahleATL6.25109
Victor Mederos (W)ATL1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
COL +3
12345678910
largest lead: ATL 2 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 33%, ATL 67% · Updated Aug 30

Expected margin
ATL by 1.8
Expected score
ATL 5.6 – 3.8 COL
Expected total
9.3
RockiesThe matchupBraves
+206Our fair odds−206
3.8Expected runs5.6
−0.48Power rating+0.17
4.7Runs / game4.7
5.8Allowed / game3.8
8.6Hits / game8.4
1.11Home runs / game1.26
3.2Walks drawn / game2.9
52−84Season record81−55
2−8Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · ATL chance
Our model fair32.7%67.3%
Kalshi33.5%70.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+20633%+19833.5%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−20667%−23970.5%———
SpreadATL by 1.8
COLColorado Rockies+1.8our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.8 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 16%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more51%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more40%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLMason Adams SP · last 1 start: 4.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 5 Kstarted
ATLTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.04 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·ATL
Aug 29 at ATL
last game
Aug 29 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 136+ games
COL·ATL
−0.48
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
4.7
runs / game
4.7
5.8
runs allowed / game
3.8
52−84
season record
81−55
27−38
home record
47−23
25−46
away record
34−32
L3
streak
W6
2−8
last 10
7−3
8.6
hits / game
8.4
1.11
home runs / game
1.26
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.63
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

COL · ATL · 155 days
Colorado RockiesAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 8−2
Aug 29at ATLATL 2 − 1
Aug 28at ATLATL 6 − 4
May 3at COLATL 11 − 6
May 2at COLATL 9 − 1
May 1at COLATL 8 − 6
Jun 15, 2025at ATLCOL 10 − 1
Jun 14, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 1
Jun 13, 2025at ATLATL 12 − 4
Apr 30, 2025at COLCOL 2 − 1
Apr 29, 2025at COLATL 8 − 2

COL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Aug 29at ATL1 − 2L
Aug 28at ATL4 − 6L
Aug 27at WSH1 − 7L
Aug 26at WSH13 − 1W
Aug 25at WSH3 − 1W
Aug 24at WSH3 − 13L
Aug 23vs CLE2 − 7L
Aug 22vs CLE3 − 4L
Aug 21vs CLE1 − 9L
Aug 19vs LAD4 − 6L

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W6
Aug 29vs COL2 − 1W
Aug 28vs COL6 − 4W
Aug 27vs LAD1 − 0W
Aug 26vs LAD6 − 5W
Aug 25vs LAD4 − 3W
Aug 23at MIL4 − 2W
Aug 22at MIL1 − 4L
Aug 21at MIL1 − 2L
Aug 20at CHW2 − 0W
Aug 19at MIN4 − 6L