bayesRatings

Rockies at Nationals

MLB · Monday, Aug 24 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final COL 3 – WSH 13
← MLB / Aug 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000110010372
WSH0000532313130
Team box
COL·WSH
7
hits
13
2
home runs
1
3
walks
8
10
strikeouts
6
174
pitches thrown
146
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Daylen LileWSH3-5215
Jorbit VivasWSH3-5102
Ezequiel TovarCOL2-2111
Willi CastroCOL1-4111
Connor NorbyCOL1-4001
Keibert RuizWSH2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan Feltner (L)COL5.26546
Cade Cavalli (W)WSH6.05217

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +10
COL +10
123456789
largest lead: WSH 10 · COL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 39%, WSH 61% · Updated Aug 24

Expected margin
WSH by 0.8
Expected score
WSH 6.2 – 5.3 COL
Expected total
11.5
RockiesThe matchupNationals
+157Our fair odds−157
5.3Expected runs6.2
−0.48Power rating−0.10
4.7Runs / game5.2
5.8Allowed / game5.1
8.6Hits / game8.5
1.11Home runs / game1.39
3.1Walks drawn / game3.4
50−80Season record61−71
3−7Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair38.9%61.1%
Kalshi36.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+15739%+17336.6%———
WSHWashington Nationals−15761%−20867.6%———
SpreadWSH by 0.8
COLColorado Rockies+0.8our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.5
Over11.5our total————
Under11.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Nationals by 0.8 expected
Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 17 runs: <1%
← COL wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more44%
Washington Nationals wins by 3 or more35%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 2%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 8%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 3%19 runs: 3%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.559%
Total over 11.544%
Total over 13.531%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLRyan Feltner SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 7.04 ERA, 7 Kstarted
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA, 29 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·WSH
Aug 23 vs CLE
last game
Aug 23 at MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 130+ games
COL·WSH
−0.48
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.7
runs / game
5.2
5.8
runs allowed / game
5.1
50−80
season record
61−71
27−38
home record
27−36
23−42
away record
34−35
L6
streak
L4
3−7
last 10
2−8
8.6
hits / game
8.5
1.11
home runs / game
1.39
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.65
errors / game
0.68

Rating Trend

COL · WSH · 149 days
Colorado RockiesWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 5−5
Jul 22at COLWSH 8 − 0
Jul 21at COLCOL 8 − 7
Jul 20at COLWSH 7 − 3
Jun 19, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Jun 18, 2025at WSHCOL 3 − 1
Jun 17, 2025at WSHCOL 10 − 6
Jun 16, 2025at WSHCOL 6 − 4
Apr 20, 2025at COLCOL 3 − 1
Apr 20, 2025at COLWSH 3 − 2
Apr 19, 2025at COLWSH 12 − 11

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L6
Aug 23vs CLE2 − 7L
Aug 22vs CLE3 − 4L
Aug 21vs CLE1 − 9L
Aug 19vs LAD4 − 6L
Aug 18vs LAD6 − 7L
Aug 17vs LAD5 − 11L
Aug 16at SF13 − 7W
Aug 15at SF1 − 7L
Aug 14at SF5 − 2W
Aug 12at ARI6 − 4W

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Aug 23at MIA2 − 6L
Aug 22at MIA2 − 4L
Aug 21at MIA2 − 3L
Aug 20at TEX0 − 2L
Aug 19at TEX6 − 0W
Aug 18at TEX0 − 5L
Aug 16at NYM3 − 4L
Aug 15at NYM4 − 5L
Aug 14at NYM1 − 4L
Aug 13vs CHC7 − 0W