bayesRatings

Nationals at Rangers

MLB · Thursday, Aug 20 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final WSH 0 – TEX 2
← MLB / Aug 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000000000010
TEX00100001260
Team box
WSH·TEX
1
hits
6
0
home runs
1
4
walks
4
15
strikeouts
8
122
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Corey SeagerTEX2-4111
Ezequiel DuranTEX2-2100
Justin FoscueTEX2-2000
Nicky LopezTEX0-0001
Brady HouseWSH1-1000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew Alvarez (L)WSH5.04135
Jacob deGrom (W)TEX6.010110
Jacob Latz (S)TEX1.00013

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 2 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 48%, TEX 52% · Updated Aug 20

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 4.4 – 4.3 TEX
Expected total
8.7
NationalsThe matchupRangers
+107Our fair odds−107
4.4Expected runs4.3
−0.07Power rating−0.07
5.3Runs / game4.0
5.1Allowed / game4.4
8.6Hits / game8.0
1.42Home runs / game1.10
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
61−67Season record62−65
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · TEX chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+10748%+15239.6%———
TEXTexas Rangers−10752%−18364.6%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals−0.1our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 11%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 17%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byTEX wins by →
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more37%
Washington Nationals wins by 3 or more27%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHAndrew Alvarez SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 11 Kstarted
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 10.1 IP, 6.97 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·TEX
Aug 19 at TEX
last game
Aug 19 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 127+ games
WSH·TEX
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
5.3
runs / game
4.0
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.4
61−67
season record
62−65
27−36
home record
33−28
34−31
away record
29−37
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.6
hits / game
8.0
1.42
home runs / game
1.10
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.70
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

WSH · TEX · 145 days
Washington NationalsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 5−5
Aug 19at TEXWSH 6 − 0
Aug 18at TEXTEX 5 − 0
Jun 8, 2025at WSHTEX 4 − 2
Jun 7, 2025at WSHTEX 5 − 0
Jun 6, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 0
May 2, 2024at TEXTEX 6 − 0
May 1, 2024at TEXWSH 1 − 0
Apr 30, 2024at TEXTEX 7 − 1
Jul 9, 2023at WSHWSH 7 − 2
Jul 8, 2023at WSHWSH 8 − 3

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 19at TEX6 − 0W
Aug 18at TEX0 − 5L
Aug 16at NYM3 − 4L
Aug 15at NYM4 − 5L
Aug 14at NYM1 − 4L
Aug 13vs CHC7 − 0W
Aug 12vs CHC6 − 12L
Aug 11vs CHC6 − 8L
Aug 9vs CIN7 − 1W
Aug 8vs CIN8 − 2W

TEX · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Aug 19vs WSH0 − 6L
Aug 18vs WSH5 − 0W
Aug 16at ATH2 − 5L
Aug 15at ATH5 − 3W
Aug 14at ATH3 − 8L
Aug 13at LAA0 − 7L
Aug 12at LAA2 − 5L
Aug 11at LAA2 − 3L
Aug 10at LAA4 − 1W
Aug 9vs BAL5 − 10L