bayesRatings

Rangers at Angels

MLB · Monday, Aug 10 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final TEX 4 – LAA 1
← MLB / Aug 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
TEX0001000003480
LAA1000000000160
Team box
TEX·LAA
8
hits
6
0
home runs
1
6
walks
4
10
strikeouts
12
172
pitches thrown
169
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mike TroutLAA1-2111
Brandon NimmoTEX2-4001
Elias DiazTEX2-5001
Jake BurgerTEX1-5002
Vaughn GrissomLAA2-4000
Josh LoweLAA1-1000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
MacKenzie GoreTEX5.14129
Peyton Gray (W)TEX1.00001
Jacob Latz (S)TEX1.00011
Reid DetmersLAA6.03146
Luke Murphy (L)LAA0.11210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
TEX +3
12345678910
largest lead: LAA 1 · TEX 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 55%, LAA 45% · Updated Aug 10

Expected margin
TEX by 0.6
Expected score
TEX 4.7 – 4.1 LAA
Expected total
8.8
RangersThe matchupAngels
−124Our fair odds+124
4.7Expected runs4.1
−0.03Power rating−0.31
4.1Runs / game4.1
4.4Allowed / game4.9
8.1Hits / game7.9
1.14Home runs / game1.04
3.2Walks drawn / game3.2
59−59Season record45−73
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · LAA chance
Our model fair55.4%44.6%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers−12455%−11252.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12445%−10751.8%———
SpreadTEX by 0.6
TEXTexas Rangers−0.6our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.6 expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byLAA wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more41%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more31%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 18 Kstarted
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·LAA
Aug 9 vs BAL
last game
Aug 9 at MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 118+ games
TEX·LAA
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.31
4.1
runs / game
4.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.9
59−59
season record
45−73
32−27
home record
25−33
27−32
away record
20−40
L1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.1
hits / game
7.9
1.14
home runs / game
1.04
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.42
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

TEX · LAA · 135 days
Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 5−5
Jul 9at TEXTEX 7 − 6
Jul 8at TEXLAA 13 − 1
Jul 7at TEXTEX 8 − 3
May 24at LAALAA 2 − 1
May 23at LAALAA 5 − 2
May 22at LAALAA 9 − 6
Aug 27, 2025at TEXTEX 20 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at TEXTEX 7 − 3
Aug 25, 2025at TEXLAA 4 − 0
Jul 30, 2025at LAATEX 6 − 3

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 9vs BAL5 − 10L
Aug 8vs BAL5 − 1W
Aug 7vs BAL2 − 1W
Aug 5vs SF6 − 0W
Aug 4vs SF5 − 4W
Aug 3vs SF1 − 5L
Aug 2at HOU3 − 7L
Aug 1at HOU4 − 5L
Jul 31at HOU2 − 11L
Jul 30at TB2 − 3L

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Aug 9at MIA3 − 12L
Aug 8at MIA0 − 7L
Aug 7at MIA4 − 3W
Aug 6at BAL4 − 1W
Aug 5at BAL2 − 5L
Aug 4at BAL1 − 3L
Aug 2vs MIL3 − 0W
Aug 1vs MIL1 − 3L
Jul 31vs MIL2 − 6L
Jul 29vs HOU4 − 7L