bayesRatings

Angels at Marlins

MLB · Saturday, Aug 8 · 3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final LAA 0 – MIA 7
← MLB / Aug 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000000000050
MIA004030007100
Team box
LAA·MIA
5
hits
10
0
home runs
0
2
walks
4
11
strikeouts
9
148
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Xavier EdwardsMIA2-4203
Otto LopezMIA2-3102
Griffin ConineMIA2-4001
Wade MecklerLAA2-4000
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-4001
Tyler HeinemanLAA1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Walbert Urena (L)LAA2.14432
Sandy Alcantara (W)MIA7.03018

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +7
LAA +7
123456789
largest lead: MIA 7 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 42%, MIA 58% · Updated Aug 8

Expected margin
MIA by 0.8
Expected score
MIA 4.8 – 3.9 LAA
Expected total
8.7
AngelsThe matchupMarlins
+137Our fair odds−137
3.9Expected runs4.8
−0.28Power rating−0.03
4.1Runs / game4.3
4.8Allowed / game4.3
7.9Hits / game8.3
1.05Home runs / game1.01
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
45−71Season record58−59
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · MIA chance
Our model fair42.2%57.8%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13742%+13442.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−13758%−16161.7%———
SpreadMIA by 0.8
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.8our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Marlins by 0.8 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 13%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 15%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 11%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more42%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more32%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, 17 Kstarted
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·MIA
Aug 7 at MIA
last game
Aug 7 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 116+ games
LAA·MIA
−0.28
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.1
runs / game
4.3
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.3
45−71
season record
58−59
25−33
home record
34−24
20−38
away record
24−35
W2
streak
L4
3−7
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.3
1.05
home runs / game
1.01
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.59
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

LAA · MIA · 133 days
Los Angeles AngelsMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 5−5
Aug 7at MIALAA 4 − 3
May 25, 2025at LAAMIA 3 − 0
May 24, 2025at LAAMIA 6 − 2
May 23, 2025at LAALAA 7 − 4
Apr 3, 2024at MIALAA 10 − 2
Apr 2, 2024at MIALAA 3 − 1
Apr 1, 2024at MIALAA 7 − 4
May 28, 2023at LAAMIA 2 − 0
May 27, 2023at LAAMIA 8 − 5
May 26, 2023at LAAMIA 6 − 2

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Aug 7at MIA4 − 3W
Aug 6at BAL4 − 1W
Aug 5at BAL2 − 5L
Aug 4at BAL1 − 3L
Aug 2vs MIL3 − 0W
Aug 1vs MIL1 − 3L
Jul 31vs MIL2 − 6L
Jul 29vs HOU4 − 7L
Jul 28vs HOU2 − 3L
Jul 27vs HOU4 − 6L

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Aug 7vs LAA3 − 4L
Aug 6at ATL3 − 11L
Aug 5at ATL1 − 4L
Aug 4at ATL2 − 4L
Aug 2at NYM2 − 0W
Aug 1at NYM6 − 2W
Jul 31at NYM5 − 2W
Jul 30at NYM2 − 4L
Jul 29vs PHI8 − 6W
Jul 28vs PHI1 − 0W