bayesRatings

Marlins at Braves

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 4 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final MIA 2 – ATL 4
← MLB / Aug 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA000000002281
ATL01000021471
Team box
MIA·ATL
8
hits
7
0
home runs
2
3
walks
1
7
strikeouts
6
125
pitches thrown
122
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Austin RileyATL2-3112
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4111
Leo JimenezMIA1-4002
Matt OlsonATL2-3000
Otto LopezMIA2-4100
Heriberto HernandezMIA2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan Gusto (L)MIA6.05105
Grant Holmes (W)ATL6.05015

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +4
MIA +4
123456789
largest lead: ATL 4 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 45%, ATL 55% · Updated Aug 4

Expected margin
ATL by 0.6
Expected score
ATL 4.7 – 4.1 MIA
Expected total
8.8
MarlinsThe matchupBraves
+122Our fair odds−122
4.1Expected runs4.7
+0.00Power rating+0.15
4.4Runs / game4.9
4.3Allowed / game3.9
8.3Hits / game8.4
1.04Home runs / game1.34
3.3Walks drawn / game3.0
58−55Season record67−45
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · ATL chance
Our model fair45.0%55.0%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+12245%+12943.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12255%−15460.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.6
MIAMiami Marlins+0.6our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.6 expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more41%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more31%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIARyan Gusto SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 11 Kstarted
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·ATL
Aug 2 at NYM
last game
Aug 2 vs WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 112+ games
MIA·ATL
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
4.4
runs / game
4.9
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.9
58−55
season record
67−45
34−23
home record
36−20
24−32
away record
31−25
W3
streak
W5
6−4
last 10
7−3
8.3
hits / game
8.4
1.04
home runs / game
1.34
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.64
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

MIA · ATL · 129 days
Miami MarlinsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 7−3
May 21at MIAATL 9 − 3
May 20at MIAATL 9 − 1
May 19at MIAATL 8 − 4
May 18at MIAMIA 12 − 0
Apr 15at ATLATL 6 − 3
Apr 14at ATLATL 6 − 5
Apr 13at ATLMIA 10 − 4
Aug 27, 2025at MIAATL 12 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at MIAATL 11 − 2
Aug 25, 2025at MIAMIA 2 − 1

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Aug 2at NYM2 − 0W
Aug 1at NYM6 − 2W
Jul 31at NYM5 − 2W
Jul 30at NYM2 − 4L
Jul 29vs PHI8 − 6W
Jul 28vs PHI1 − 0W
Jul 27vs PHI8 − 7W
Jul 26vs SD3 − 5L
Jul 25vs SD2 − 7L
Jul 24vs SD2 − 4L

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Aug 2vs WSH4 − 2W
Aug 1vs WSH8 − 3W
Jul 31vs WSH6 − 2W
Jul 30vs WSH5 − 4W
Jul 29at NYM1 − 0W
Jul 29at NYM2 − 3L
Jul 27at NYM3 − 14L
Jul 26at BAL3 − 2W
Jul 25at BAL2 − 3L
Jul 24at BAL7 − 6W