bayesRatings

Nationals at Braves

MLB · Sunday, Aug 2 · 12:35 PM CT · Truist Park · Final WSH 2 – ATL 4
← MLB / Aug 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000200000242
ATL00111010470
Team box
WSH·ATL
4
hits
7
0
home runs
2
5
walks
1
11
strikeouts
4
112
pitches thrown
148
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt OlsonATL2-4111
Mike YastrzemskiATL1-2112
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-3000
Austin RileyATL1-3100
Mauricio DubonATL1-3100
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cade Cavalli (L)WSH6.06213
JR RitchieATL4.04234
Dylan Dodd (W)ATL1.00001
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.00011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 2 · WSH 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 43%, ATL 57% · Updated Aug 2

Expected margin
ATL by 0.5
Expected score
ATL 5.0 – 4.5 WSH
Expected total
9.6
NationalsThe matchupBraves
+131Our fair odds−131
4.5Expected runs5.0
−0.07Power rating+0.14
5.4Runs / game4.9
5.2Allowed / game4.0
8.7Hits / game8.5
1.46Home runs / game1.33
3.5Walks drawn / game3.0
55−57Season record66−45
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · ATL chance
Our model fair43.4%56.6%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+13143%+10947.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−13157%−13156.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.5
WSHWashington Nationals+0.5our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.5 expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 16%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more40%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more31%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 20 Kstarted
ATLJR Ritchie SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·ATL
Aug 1 at ATL
last game
Aug 1 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 111+ games
WSH·ATL
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
5.4
runs / game
4.9
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.0
55−57
season record
66−45
23−34
home record
35−20
32−23
away record
31−25
L4
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
7−3
8.7
hits / game
8.5
1.46
home runs / game
1.33
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.77
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

WSH · ATL · 127 days
Washington NationalsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 7−3
Aug 1at ATLATL 8 − 3
Jul 31at ATLATL 6 − 2
Jul 30at ATLATL 5 − 4
May 24at ATLWSH 2 − 1
May 23at ATLWSH 2 − 0
May 22at ATLATL 5 − 4
Apr 23at WSHATL 7 − 2
Apr 22at WSHATL 8 − 6
Apr 21at WSHWSH 11 − 4
Apr 20at WSHATL 9 − 4

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Aug 1at ATL3 − 8L
Jul 31at ATL2 − 6L
Jul 30at ATL4 − 5L
Jul 29vs TOR2 − 5L
Jul 28vs TOR8 − 6W
Jul 27vs TOR2 − 3L
Jul 26vs ARI10 − 7W
Jul 25vs ARI5 − 3W
Jul 24vs ARI2 − 3L
Jul 22at COL8 − 0W

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Aug 1vs WSH8 − 3W
Jul 31vs WSH6 − 2W
Jul 30vs WSH5 − 4W
Jul 29at NYM1 − 0W
Jul 29at NYM2 − 3L
Jul 27at NYM3 − 14L
Jul 26at BAL3 − 2W
Jul 25at BAL2 − 3L
Jul 24at BAL7 − 6W
Jul 23vs SD6 − 5W