bayesRatings

Nationals at Braves

MLB · Friday, Jul 31 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final WSH 2 – ATL 6
← MLB / Jul 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000100001291
ATL110004006120
Team box
WSH·ATL
9
hits
12
2
home runs
2
4
walks
3
7
strikeouts
7
141
pitches thrown
155
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael Harris IIATL2-4113
Jim JarvisATL3-3002
Matt OlsonATL2-4211
CJ AbramsWSH1-2111
Andres ChaparroWSH1-2111
Ozzie AlbiesATL2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Foster Griffin (L)WSH5.19623
Bryce Elder (W)ATL6.04133
Elieser Hernandez (S)ATL3.05114

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +5
WSH +5
123456789
largest lead: ATL 5 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 44%, ATL 56% · Updated Jul 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 5.0 – 4.6 WSH
Expected total
9.6
NationalsThe matchupBraves
+126Our fair odds−126
4.6Expected runs5.0
−0.05Power rating+0.12
5.5Runs / game4.9
5.2Allowed / game4.0
8.7Hits / game8.4
1.47Home runs / game1.31
3.5Walks drawn / game3.0
55−55Season record64−45
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · ATL chance
Our model fair44.2%55.8%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+12644%−10350.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12656%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals+0.4our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 16%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more39%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more30%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHFoster Griffin SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 2.18 ERA, 13 Kstarted
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·ATL
Jul 30 at ATL
last game
Jul 30 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 109+ games
WSH·ATL
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
5.5
runs / game
4.9
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.0
55−55
season record
64−45
23−34
home record
33−20
32−21
away record
31−25
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.7
hits / game
8.4
1.47
home runs / game
1.31
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.76
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

WSH · ATL · 125 days
Washington NationalsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 6−4
Jul 30at ATLATL 5 − 4
May 24at ATLWSH 2 − 1
May 23at ATLWSH 2 − 0
May 22at ATLATL 5 − 4
Apr 23at WSHATL 7 − 2
Apr 22at WSHATL 8 − 6
Apr 21at WSHWSH 11 − 4
Apr 20at WSHATL 9 − 4
Sep 24, 2025at ATLWSH 4 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at ATLATL 3 − 2

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jul 30at ATL4 − 5L
Jul 29vs TOR2 − 5L
Jul 28vs TOR8 − 6W
Jul 27vs TOR2 − 3L
Jul 26vs ARI10 − 7W
Jul 25vs ARI5 − 3W
Jul 24vs ARI2 − 3L
Jul 22at COL8 − 0W
Jul 21at COL7 − 8L
Jul 20at COL7 − 3W

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jul 30vs WSH5 − 4W
Jul 29at NYM1 − 0W
Jul 29at NYM2 − 3L
Jul 27at NYM3 − 14L
Jul 26at BAL3 − 2W
Jul 25at BAL2 − 3L
Jul 24at BAL7 − 6W
Jul 23vs SD6 − 5W
Jul 22vs SD7 − 6W
Jul 21vs SD3 − 8L