bayesRatings

Nationals at Braves

MLB · Thursday, Jul 30 · 6:00 PM CT · Truist Park · Final WSH 4 – ATL 5
← MLB / Jul 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH011100100471
ATL00012200540
Team box
WSH·ATL
7
hits
4
3
home runs
2
4
walks
3
6
strikeouts
3
100
pitches thrown
138
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Daylen LileWSH2-4222
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH3-5112
Mike YastrzemskiATL1-2112
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL1-3211
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-3002
Jose TenaWSH2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jake Irvin (L)WSH5.03521
Grant HolmesATL4.25324
Victor Mederos (W)ATL1.01110
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.00010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 2 · WSH 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 45%, ATL 55% · Updated Jul 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 5.0 – 4.6 WSH
Expected total
9.6
NationalsThe matchupBraves
+125Our fair odds−125
4.6Expected runs5.0
−0.05Power rating+0.11
5.5Runs / game4.9
5.2Allowed / game4.0
8.7Hits / game8.5
1.46Home runs / game1.31
3.5Walks drawn / game3.0
55−54Season record63−45
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · ATL chance
Our model fair44.5%55.5%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+12545%+13442.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12555%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals+0.4our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 16%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more40%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more30%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHJake Irvin SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 5.25 ERA, 17 Kstarted
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·ATL
Jul 29 vs TOR
last game
Jul 29 at NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 108+ games
WSH·ATL
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
5.5
runs / game
4.9
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.0
55−54
season record
63−45
23−34
home record
32−20
32−20
away record
31−25
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.7
hits / game
8.5
1.46
home runs / game
1.31
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.76
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

WSH · ATL · 124 days
Washington NationalsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 6−4
May 24at ATLWSH 2 − 1
May 23at ATLWSH 2 − 0
May 22at ATLATL 5 − 4
Apr 23at WSHATL 7 − 2
Apr 22at WSHATL 8 − 6
Apr 21at WSHWSH 11 − 4
Apr 20at WSHATL 9 − 4
Sep 24, 2025at ATLWSH 4 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at ATLATL 3 − 2
Sep 22, 2025at ATLATL 11 − 5

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 29vs TOR2 − 5L
Jul 28vs TOR8 − 6W
Jul 27vs TOR2 − 3L
Jul 26vs ARI10 − 7W
Jul 25vs ARI5 − 3W
Jul 24vs ARI2 − 3L
Jul 22at COL8 − 0W
Jul 21at COL7 − 8L
Jul 20at COL7 − 3W
Jul 19at ATH5 − 2W

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 29at NYM1 − 0W
Jul 29at NYM2 − 3L
Jul 27at NYM3 − 14L
Jul 26at BAL3 − 2W
Jul 25at BAL2 − 3L
Jul 24at BAL7 − 6W
Jul 23vs SD6 − 5W
Jul 22vs SD7 − 6W
Jul 21vs SD3 − 8L
Jul 20vs SD3 − 2W