bayesRatings

Nationals at Braves

MLB · Saturday, Aug 1 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final WSH 3 – ATL 8
← MLB / Aug 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000000030341
ATL210100408103
Team box
WSH·ATL
4
hits
10
0
home runs
3
3
walks
4
6
strikeouts
6
148
pitches thrown
109
1
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dominic SmithATL1-3212
Austin RileyATL2-4002
Matt OlsonATL1-3211
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL1-4211
CJ AbramsWSH1-4002
Mike YastrzemskiATL2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Miles Mikolas (L)WSH6.09413
Martin Perez (W)ATL7.01026

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +8
WSH +8
123456789
largest lead: ATL 8 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 44%, ATL 56% · Updated Aug 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 5.0 – 4.6 WSH
Expected total
9.6
NationalsThe matchupBraves
+128Our fair odds−128
4.6Expected runs5.0
−0.06Power rating+0.13
5.4Runs / game4.9
5.2Allowed / game4.0
8.7Hits / game8.4
1.48Home runs / game1.32
3.5Walks drawn / game3.0
55−56Season record65−45
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · ATL chance
Our model fair43.9%56.1%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+12844%+14640.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12856%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals+0.4our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 17%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more39%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more30%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHMiles Mikolas SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 8.47 ERA, 7 Kstarted
ATLMartin Perez SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 4.72 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·ATL
Jul 31 at ATL
last game
Jul 31 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 110+ games
WSH·ATL
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
5.4
runs / game
4.9
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.0
55−56
season record
65−45
23−34
home record
34−20
32−22
away record
31−25
L3
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
7−3
8.7
hits / game
8.4
1.48
home runs / game
1.32
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.77
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

WSH · ATL · 126 days
Washington NationalsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 6−4
Jul 31at ATLATL 6 − 2
Jul 30at ATLATL 5 − 4
May 24at ATLWSH 2 − 1
May 23at ATLWSH 2 − 0
May 22at ATLATL 5 − 4
Apr 23at WSHATL 7 − 2
Apr 22at WSHATL 8 − 6
Apr 21at WSHWSH 11 − 4
Apr 20at WSHATL 9 − 4
Sep 24, 2025at ATLWSH 4 − 3

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jul 31at ATL2 − 6L
Jul 30at ATL4 − 5L
Jul 29vs TOR2 − 5L
Jul 28vs TOR8 − 6W
Jul 27vs TOR2 − 3L
Jul 26vs ARI10 − 7W
Jul 25vs ARI5 − 3W
Jul 24vs ARI2 − 3L
Jul 22at COL8 − 0W
Jul 21at COL7 − 8L

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jul 31vs WSH6 − 2W
Jul 30vs WSH5 − 4W
Jul 29at NYM1 − 0W
Jul 29at NYM2 − 3L
Jul 27at NYM3 − 14L
Jul 26at BAL3 − 2W
Jul 25at BAL2 − 3L
Jul 24at BAL7 − 6W
Jul 23vs SD6 − 5W
Jul 22vs SD7 − 6W