bayesRatings

Brewers at Angels

MLB · Saturday, Aug 1 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final MIL 3 – LAA 1
← MLB / Aug 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL000100011350
LAA100000000150
Team box
MIL·LAA
5
hits
5
1
home runs
0
4
walks
2
9
strikeouts
13
129
pitches thrown
157
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BauersMIL1-4111
Mike TroutLAA2-3100
Jorge SolerLAA1-4001
Brice TurangMIL1-4001
Cooper PrattMIL1-3001
Jose SiriLAA1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Robert GasserMIL5.04126
Chad Patrick (W)MIL2.01005
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.00000
Brent SuterLAA2.00031
Samy Natera Jr. (L)LAA2.02104

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 1 · MIL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 63%, LAA 37% · Updated Aug 1

Expected margin
MIL by 1.9
Expected score
MIL 5.6 – 3.7 LAA
Expected total
9.3
BrewersThe matchupAngels
−172Our fair odds+172
5.6Expected runs3.7
+0.33Power rating−0.28
5.1Runs / game4.2
3.8Allowed / game4.9
8.7Hits / game8.0
0.92Home runs / game1.06
4.1Walks drawn / game3.2
68−41Season record42−68
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · LAA chance
Our model fair63.3%36.7%
Kalshi60.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−17263%−15460.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+17237%+12943.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.9
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.9our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.9 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 16 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byLAA wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more53%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more42%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILRobert Gasser SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 6.43 ERA, 12 Kstarted
LAABrent Suter RP · last 3 starts: 5.2 IP, 7.94 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·LAA
Jul 31 at LAA
last game
Jul 31 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 109+ games
MIL·LAA
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
−0.28
5.1
runs / game
4.2
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.9
68−41
season record
42−68
36−20
home record
24−32
32−21
away record
18−36
W1
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
3−7
8.7
hits / game
8.0
0.92
home runs / game
1.06
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.44
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

MIL · LAA · 126 days
Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 2−8
Jul 31at LAAMIL 6 − 2
Sep 18, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 2
Sep 17, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 2
Sep 16, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 2
Jun 19, 2024at LAAMIL 2 − 0
Jun 18, 2024at LAAMIL 6 − 3
Jun 17, 2024at LAALAA 5 − 3
Apr 30, 2023at MILLAA 3 − 0
Apr 29, 2023at MILMIL 7 − 5
Apr 28, 2023at MILMIL 2 − 1

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 31at LAA6 − 2W
Jul 29at SF3 − 16L
Jul 28at SF8 − 2W
Jul 27at SF0 − 3L
Jul 26vs COL11 − 2W
Jul 25vs COL8 − 5W
Jul 24vs COL2 − 5L
Jul 22vs NYM4 − 3W
Jul 21vs NYM0 − 4L
Jul 20vs NYM8 − 3W

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Jul 31vs MIL2 − 6L
Jul 29vs HOU4 − 7L
Jul 28vs HOU2 − 3L
Jul 27vs HOU4 − 6L
Jul 26at SF4 − 3W
Jul 25at SF2 − 9L
Jul 24at SF6 − 7L
Jul 22vs STL0 − 1L
Jul 21vs STL5 − 1W
Jul 20vs STL3 − 2W