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Brewers at Angels

MLB · Friday, Jul 31 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final MIL 6 – LAA 2
← MLB / Jul 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL010050000690
LAA000020000241
Team box
MIL·LAA
9
hits
4
2
home runs
1
8
walks
1
8
strikeouts
10
132
pitches thrown
174
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BauersMIL2-4213
Denzer GuzmanLAA1-3112
Brice TurangMIL1-3112
Garrett MitchellMIL2-4000
Cooper PrattMIL1-2101
Vaughn GrissomLAA1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane Drohan (W)MIL6.04217
Ryan Johnson (L)LAA4.16533

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +6
MIL +6
123456789
largest lead: LAA 0 · MIL 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 63%, LAA 37% · Updated Jul 31

Expected margin
MIL by 1.8
Expected score
MIL 5.6 – 3.8 LAA
Expected total
9.4
BrewersThe matchupAngels
−169Our fair odds+169
5.6Expected runs3.8
+0.32Power rating−0.27
5.1Runs / game4.3
3.8Allowed / game4.9
8.6Hits / game8.0
0.91Home runs / game1.06
4.1Walks drawn / game3.2
67−41Season record42−67
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · LAA chance
Our model fair62.8%37.2%
Kalshi63.6%40.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−16963%−17563.6%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+16937%+14640.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.8
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.8our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.8 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 16 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byLAA wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more52%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more41%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILShane Drohan SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 21 Kstarted
LAARyan Johnson SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 8.10 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·LAA
Jul 29 at SF
last game
Jul 29 vs HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 108+ games
MIL·LAA
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
−0.27
5.1
runs / game
4.3
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.9
67−41
season record
42−67
36−20
home record
24−31
31−21
away record
18−36
L1
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
8.0
0.91
home runs / game
1.06
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.44
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

MIL · LAA · 125 days
Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · LAA 2−7
Sep 18, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 2
Sep 17, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 2
Sep 16, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 2
Jun 19, 2024at LAAMIL 2 − 0
Jun 18, 2024at LAAMIL 6 − 3
Jun 17, 2024at LAALAA 5 − 3
Apr 30, 2023at MILLAA 3 − 0
Apr 29, 2023at MILMIL 7 − 5
Apr 28, 2023at MILMIL 2 − 1

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 29at SF3 − 16L
Jul 28at SF8 − 2W
Jul 27at SF0 − 3L
Jul 26vs COL11 − 2W
Jul 25vs COL8 − 5W
Jul 24vs COL2 − 5L
Jul 22vs NYM4 − 3W
Jul 21vs NYM0 − 4L
Jul 20vs NYM8 − 3W
Jul 19vs MIA3 − 1W

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jul 29vs HOU4 − 7L
Jul 28vs HOU2 − 3L
Jul 27vs HOU4 − 6L
Jul 26at SF4 − 3W
Jul 25at SF2 − 9L
Jul 24at SF6 − 7L
Jul 22vs STL0 − 1L
Jul 21vs STL5 − 1W
Jul 20vs STL3 − 2W
Jul 19vs DET3 − 2W