bayesRatings

Angels at Orioles

MLB · Thursday, Aug 6 · 11:35 AM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final LAA 4 – BAL 1
← MLB / Aug 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA003000100490
BAL001000000141
Team box
LAA·BAL
9
hits
4
1
home runs
1
5
walks
8
7
strikeouts
9
153
pitches thrown
162
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Zach NetoLAA2-5113
Yohel PozoBAL1-3111
Jose SiriLAA2-3000
Vaughn GrissomLAA2-4000
Wade MecklerLAA2-5200
Tyler O'NeillBAL1-1000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan JohnsonLAA4.23151
Mitch Farris (W)LAA1.00012
Samy Natera Jr. (S)LAA1.11002
Brandon Young (L)BAL4.16324

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
LAA +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 0 · LAA 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 42%, BAL 58% · Updated Aug 6

Expected margin
BAL by 0.7
Expected score
BAL 4.9 – 4.2 LAA
Expected total
9.1
AngelsThe matchupOrioles
+138Our fair odds−138
4.2Expected runs4.9
−0.30Power rating−0.04
4.1Runs / game4.5
4.8Allowed / game4.8
7.9Hits / game7.8
1.04Home runs / game1.16
3.1Walks drawn / game3.9
43−71Season record56−58
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · BAL chance
Our model fair42.0%58.0%
Kalshi37.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:35 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13842%+16637.6%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−13858%−20867.6%———
SpreadBAL by 0.7
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.7our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Orioles by 0.7 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byBAL wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more42%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more31%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAARyan Johnson SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 9.95 ERA, 12 Kstarted
BALBrandon Young SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·BAL
Aug 5 at BAL
last game
Aug 5 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 114+ games
LAA·BAL
−0.30
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.1
runs / game
4.5
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.8
43−71
season record
56−58
25−33
home record
32−29
18−38
away record
24−29
L2
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
6−4
7.9
hits / game
7.8
1.04
home runs / game
1.16
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.9
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.60
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

LAA · BAL · 131 days
Los Angeles AngelsBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 7−3
Aug 5at BALBAL 5 − 2
Aug 4at BALBAL 3 − 1
Jun 24at LAALAA 7 − 6
Jun 23at LAALAA 5 − 1
Jun 22at LAABAL 6 − 1
Jun 15, 2025at BALBAL 11 − 2
Jun 14, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 5
Jun 13, 2025at BALBAL 2 − 0
May 11, 2025at LAABAL 7 − 3
May 10, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 2

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Aug 5at BAL2 − 5L
Aug 4at BAL1 − 3L
Aug 2vs MIL3 − 0W
Aug 1vs MIL1 − 3L
Jul 31vs MIL2 − 6L
Jul 29vs HOU4 − 7L
Jul 28vs HOU2 − 3L
Jul 27vs HOU4 − 6L
Jul 26at SF4 − 3W
Jul 25at SF2 − 9L

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Aug 5vs LAA5 − 2W
Aug 4vs LAA3 − 1W
Aug 2vs PHI0 − 8L
Aug 1vs PHI0 − 5L
Jul 31vs PHI6 − 4W
Jul 29at DET10 − 9W
Jul 28at DET0 − 14L
Jul 27at DET8 − 5W
Jul 26vs ATL2 − 3L
Jul 25vs ATL3 − 2W