bayesRatings

Phillies at Orioles

MLB · Friday, Jul 31 · 6:05 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final PHI 4 – BAL 6
← MLB / Jul 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI201001000460
BAL20000040660
Team box
PHI·BAL
6
hits
6
2
home runs
1
3
walks
6
7
strikeouts
9
133
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pete AlonsoBAL2-3212
Trea TurnerPHI3-4211
J.T. RealmutoPHI1-4111
Gunnar HendersonBAL1-4002
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL1-1102
Bryce HarperPHI1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew PainterPHI6.03236
Orion Kerkering (L)PHI0.22412
Brandon YoungBAL5.25425
Anthony Nunez (W)BAL0.20011
Tyler Wells (S)BAL1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 2 · PHI 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 51%, BAL 49% · Updated Jul 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.8 – 4.4 BAL
Expected total
9.2
PhilliesThe matchupOrioles
−105Our fair odds+105
4.8Expected runs4.4
+0.07Power rating−0.04
4.3Runs / game4.6
4.5Allowed / game4.8
7.9Hits / game7.9
1.27Home runs / game1.17
2.9Walks drawn / game3.9
57−52Season record53−56
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · BAL chance
Our model fair51.3%48.7%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10551%+10149.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+10549%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.4our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byBAL wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more40%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more30%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAndrew Painter SP · last 3 starts: 10.0 IP, 14.40 ERA, 10 Kstarted
BALBrandon Young SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 2.21 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·BAL
Jul 29 at MIA
last game
Jul 29 at DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 109+ games
PHI·BAL
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.3
runs / game
4.6
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.8
57−52
season record
53−56
28−27
home record
29−27
29−25
away record
24−29
L3
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
7.9
1.27
home runs / game
1.17
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.54
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

PHI · BAL · 125 days
Philadelphia PhilliesBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 4−6
Aug 6, 2025at PHIBAL 5 − 1
Aug 5, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 0
Aug 4, 2025at PHIPHI 13 − 3
Jun 16, 2024at BALBAL 8 − 3
Jun 15, 2024at BALBAL 6 − 2
Jun 14, 2024at BALPHI 5 − 3
Jul 26, 2023at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Jul 25, 2023at PHIPHI 4 − 3
Jul 24, 2023at PHIBAL 3 − 2
Sep 22, 2021at PHIPHI 4 − 3

PHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Jul 29at MIA6 − 8L
Jul 28at MIA0 − 1L
Jul 27at MIA7 − 8L
Jul 26vs NYY11 − 4W
Jul 25vs NYY1 − 3L
Jul 24vs NYY0 − 1L
Jul 22vs LAD5 − 9L
Jul 21vs LAD1 − 2L
Jul 20vs LAD10 − 7W
Jul 19vs NYM1 − 6L

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 29at DET10 − 9W
Jul 28at DET0 − 14L
Jul 27at DET8 − 5W
Jul 26vs ATL2 − 3L
Jul 25vs ATL3 − 2W
Jul 24vs ATL6 − 7L
Jul 22at BOS5 − 1W
Jul 22at BOS3 − 6L
Jul 20at BOS5 − 6L
Jul 19at HOU5 − 2W