bayesRatings

Phillies at Orioles

MLB · Sunday, Aug 2 · 12:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final PHI 8 – BAL 0
← MLB / Aug 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456THE
PHI002213890
BAL000000040
Team box
PHI·BAL
9
hits
4
2
home runs
0
6
walks
1
4
strikeouts
7
88
pitches thrown
120
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryan De La CruzPHI1-2113
Justin CrawfordPHI2-3202
Bryce HarperPHI1-3111
Alec BohmPHI2-4100
Taylor WardBAL1-2000
Pete AlonsoBAL1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zack WheelerPHI2.01003
Tim Mayza (W)PHI2.02003
Kyle Bradish (L)BAL3.02223

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +8
PHI +8
123456
largest lead: BAL 0 · PHI 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 52%, BAL 48% · Updated Aug 2

Expected margin
PHI by 0.5
Expected score
PHI 4.8 – 4.3 BAL
Expected total
9.2
PhilliesThe matchupOrioles
−106Our fair odds+106
4.8Expected runs4.3
+0.08Power rating−0.05
4.3Runs / game4.6
4.5Allowed / game4.8
7.9Hits / game7.9
1.26Home runs / game1.15
2.9Walks drawn / game3.9
58−53Season record54−57
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · BAL chance
Our model fair51.6%48.4%
Kalshi59.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10652%−14859.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+10648%+11945.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.5
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.5our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.5 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byBAL wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more41%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more31%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 25 Kstarted
BALKyle Bradish SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·BAL
Aug 1 at BAL
last game
Aug 1 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 111+ games
PHI·BAL
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.3
runs / game
4.6
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.8
58−53
season record
54−57
28−27
home record
30−28
30−26
away record
24−29
W1
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
7.9
1.26
home runs / game
1.15
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.53
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

PHI · BAL · 127 days
Philadelphia PhilliesBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 4−6
Aug 1at BALPHI 5 − 0
Jul 31at BALBAL 6 − 4
Aug 6, 2025at PHIBAL 5 − 1
Aug 5, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 0
Aug 4, 2025at PHIPHI 13 − 3
Jun 16, 2024at BALBAL 8 − 3
Jun 15, 2024at BALBAL 6 − 2
Jun 14, 2024at BALPHI 5 − 3
Jul 26, 2023at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Jul 25, 2023at PHIPHI 4 − 3

PHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Aug 1at BAL5 − 0W
Jul 31at BAL4 − 6L
Jul 29at MIA6 − 8L
Jul 28at MIA0 − 1L
Jul 27at MIA7 − 8L
Jul 26vs NYY11 − 4W
Jul 25vs NYY1 − 3L
Jul 24vs NYY0 − 1L
Jul 22vs LAD5 − 9L
Jul 21vs LAD1 − 2L

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 1vs PHI0 − 5L
Jul 31vs PHI6 − 4W
Jul 29at DET10 − 9W
Jul 28at DET0 − 14L
Jul 27at DET8 − 5W
Jul 26vs ATL2 − 3L
Jul 25vs ATL3 − 2W
Jul 24vs ATL6 − 7L
Jul 22at BOS5 − 1W
Jul 22at BOS3 − 6L