bayesRatings

Angels at Orioles

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 4 · 5:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final LAA 1 – BAL 3
← MLB / Aug 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA0000000101100
BAL00200001341
Team box
LAA·BAL
10
hits
4
0
home runs
1
2
walks
2
11
strikeouts
7
120
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler O'NeillBAL1-1111
Pete AlonsoBAL1-4002
Josh LoweLAA2-2000
Wade MecklerLAA2-3000
Nolan SchanuelLAA2-4100
Colton CowserBAL1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Grayson Rodriguez (L)LAA7.03216
Cade Povich (W)BAL6.07017
Yennier Cano (S)BAL1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
LAA +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 2 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 43%, BAL 57% · Updated Aug 4

Expected margin
BAL by 0.6
Expected score
BAL 5.0 – 4.4 LAA
Expected total
9.3
AngelsThe matchupOrioles
+132Our fair odds−132
4.4Expected runs5.0
−0.28Power rating−0.06
4.2Runs / game4.5
4.9Allowed / game4.8
7.9Hits / game7.8
1.05Home runs / game1.14
3.2Walks drawn / game3.9
43−69Season record54−58
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · BAL chance
Our model fair43.1%56.9%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13243%+12943.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−13257%−15460.7%———
SpreadBAL by 0.6
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.6our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Orioles by 0.6 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byBAL wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more41%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more31%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAGrayson Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 12 Kstarted
BALCade Povich SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.93 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·BAL
Aug 2 vs MIL
last game
Aug 2 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 112+ games
LAA·BAL
−0.28
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.2
runs / game
4.5
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.8
43−69
season record
54−58
25−33
home record
30−29
18−36
away record
24−29
W1
streak
L2
2−8
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
7.8
1.05
home runs / game
1.14
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.9
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.60
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

LAA · BAL · 129 days
Los Angeles AngelsBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 7−3
Jun 24at LAALAA 7 − 6
Jun 23at LAALAA 5 − 1
Jun 22at LAABAL 6 − 1
Jun 15, 2025at BALBAL 11 − 2
Jun 14, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 5
Jun 13, 2025at BALBAL 2 − 0
May 11, 2025at LAABAL 7 − 3
May 10, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 2
May 9, 2025at LAABAL 4 − 1
Apr 24, 2024at LAABAL 6 − 5

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Aug 2vs MIL3 − 0W
Aug 1vs MIL1 − 3L
Jul 31vs MIL2 − 6L
Jul 29vs HOU4 − 7L
Jul 28vs HOU2 − 3L
Jul 27vs HOU4 − 6L
Jul 26at SF4 − 3W
Jul 25at SF2 − 9L
Jul 24at SF6 − 7L
Jul 22vs STL0 − 1L

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Aug 2vs PHI0 − 8L
Aug 1vs PHI0 − 5L
Jul 31vs PHI6 − 4W
Jul 29at DET10 − 9W
Jul 28at DET0 − 14L
Jul 27at DET8 − 5W
Jul 26vs ATL2 − 3L
Jul 25vs ATL3 − 2W
Jul 24vs ATL6 − 7L
Jul 22at BOS5 − 1W