bayesRatings

Brewers at Angels

MLB · Sunday, Aug 2 · 2:15 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final MIL 0 – LAA 3
← MLB / Aug 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL000000000050
LAA02000001340
Team box
MIL·LAA
5
hits
4
0
home runs
1
5
walks
2
11
strikeouts
11
107
pitches thrown
141
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Wade MecklerLAA1-3112
Zach NetoLAA1-4001
Jackson ChourioMIL2-3000
Mike TroutLAA1-4000
Vaughn GrissomLAA1-3100
Jake BauersMIL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob Misiorowski (L)MIL7.022110
Walbert Urena (W)LAA6.03037
Ryan Zeferjahn (S)LAA1.22004

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 3 · MIL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 64%, LAA 36% · Updated Aug 2

Expected margin
MIL by 1.9
Expected score
MIL 5.5 – 3.6 LAA
Expected total
9.2
BrewersThe matchupAngels
−177Our fair odds+177
5.5Expected runs3.6
+0.34Power rating−0.29
5.0Runs / game4.2
3.8Allowed / game4.9
8.6Hits / game8.0
0.92Home runs / game1.05
4.1Walks drawn / game3.2
69−41Season record42−69
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · LAA chance
Our model fair63.9%36.1%
Kalshi69.5%34.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−17764%−22869.5%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+17736%+18934.5%———
SpreadMIL by 1.9
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.9our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.9 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 16 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byLAA wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more53%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more42%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILJacob Misiorowski SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 29 Kstarted
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.12 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·LAA
Aug 1 at LAA
last game
Aug 1 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 110+ games
MIL·LAA
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
−0.29
5.0
runs / game
4.2
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.9
69−41
season record
42−69
36−20
home record
24−33
33−21
away record
18−36
W2
streak
L5
6−4
last 10
2−8
8.6
hits / game
8.0
0.92
home runs / game
1.05
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.44
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

MIL · LAA · 127 days
Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 2−8
Aug 1at LAAMIL 3 − 1
Jul 31at LAAMIL 6 − 2
Sep 18, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 2
Sep 17, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 2
Sep 16, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 2
Jun 19, 2024at LAAMIL 2 − 0
Jun 18, 2024at LAAMIL 6 − 3
Jun 17, 2024at LAALAA 5 − 3
Apr 30, 2023at MILLAA 3 − 0
Apr 29, 2023at MILMIL 7 − 5

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Aug 1at LAA3 − 1W
Jul 31at LAA6 − 2W
Jul 29at SF3 − 16L
Jul 28at SF8 − 2W
Jul 27at SF0 − 3L
Jul 26vs COL11 − 2W
Jul 25vs COL8 − 5W
Jul 24vs COL2 − 5L
Jul 22vs NYM4 − 3W
Jul 21vs NYM0 − 4L

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Aug 1vs MIL1 − 3L
Jul 31vs MIL2 − 6L
Jul 29vs HOU4 − 7L
Jul 28vs HOU2 − 3L
Jul 27vs HOU4 − 6L
Jul 26at SF4 − 3W
Jul 25at SF2 − 9L
Jul 24at SF6 − 7L
Jul 22vs STL0 − 1L
Jul 21vs STL5 − 1W