bayesRatings

Angels at Marlins

MLB · Friday, Aug 7 · 6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final LAA 4 – MIA 3
← MLB / Aug 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA100000300460
MIA0001010013121
Team box
LAA·MIA
6
hits
12
2
home runs
0
4
walks
5
9
strikeouts
6
162
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle StowersMIA4-4002
Nolan SchanuelLAA1-3112
Mike TroutLAA1-3211
Leo JimenezMIA2-5001
Jakob MarseeMIA2-2100
Agustin RamirezMIA2-2100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
George KlassenLAA4.04143
Shaun Anderson (W)LAA0.11010
Jose Fermin (S)LAA1.03100
Tyler PhillipsMIA4.05114
Josh Ekness (L)MIA1.21010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
LAA +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 1 · LAA 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 42%, MIA 58% · Updated Aug 7

Expected margin
MIA by 0.8
Expected score
MIA 4.8 – 3.9 LAA
Expected total
8.7
AngelsThe matchupMarlins
+140Our fair odds−140
3.9Expected runs4.8
−0.29Power rating−0.02
4.1Runs / game4.3
4.8Allowed / game4.3
7.9Hits / game8.2
1.04Home runs / game1.02
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
44−71Season record58−58
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · MIA chance
Our model fair41.7%58.3%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+14042%+13442.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−14058%−16161.7%———
SpreadMIA by 0.8
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.8our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Marlins by 0.8 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 12%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 16%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 11%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more42%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more32%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAGeorge Klassen SP · last 2 starts: 4.2 IP, 11.57 ERA, 6 Kstarted
MIATyler Phillips SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·MIA
Aug 6 at BAL
last game
Aug 6 at ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 115+ games
LAA·MIA
−0.29
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.1
runs / game
4.3
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.3
44−71
season record
58−58
25−33
home record
34−23
19−38
away record
24−35
W1
streak
L3
3−7
last 10
6−4
7.9
hits / game
8.2
1.04
home runs / game
1.02
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.59
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

LAA · MIA · 132 days
Los Angeles AngelsMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 5−5
May 25, 2025at LAAMIA 3 − 0
May 24, 2025at LAAMIA 6 − 2
May 23, 2025at LAALAA 7 − 4
Apr 3, 2024at MIALAA 10 − 2
Apr 2, 2024at MIALAA 3 − 1
Apr 1, 2024at MIALAA 7 − 4
May 28, 2023at LAAMIA 2 − 0
May 27, 2023at LAAMIA 8 − 5
May 26, 2023at LAAMIA 6 − 2
Jul 6, 2022at MIALAA 5 − 2

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Aug 6at BAL4 − 1W
Aug 5at BAL2 − 5L
Aug 4at BAL1 − 3L
Aug 2vs MIL3 − 0W
Aug 1vs MIL1 − 3L
Jul 31vs MIL2 − 6L
Jul 29vs HOU4 − 7L
Jul 28vs HOU2 − 3L
Jul 27vs HOU4 − 6L
Jul 26at SF4 − 3W

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Aug 6at ATL3 − 11L
Aug 5at ATL1 − 4L
Aug 4at ATL2 − 4L
Aug 2at NYM2 − 0W
Aug 1at NYM6 − 2W
Jul 31at NYM5 − 2W
Jul 30at NYM2 − 4L
Jul 29vs PHI8 − 6W
Jul 28vs PHI1 − 0W
Jul 27vs PHI8 − 7W