bayesRatings

Orioles at Rangers

MLB · Friday, Aug 7 · 7:15 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final BAL 1 – TEX 2
← MLB / Aug 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL010000000170
TEX00000200230
Team box
BAL·TEX
7
hits
3
0
home runs
1
3
walks
1
6
strikeouts
9
93
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Joc PedersonTEX1-4112
Leody TaverasBAL2-4100
Coby MayoBAL1-4001
Christian FranklinBAL1-2000
Colton CowserBAL1-2000
Dylan BeaversBAL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane Baz (L)BAL8.03219
Nathan EovaldiTEX5.14122
Tyler Alexander (W)TEX0.21001
Jacob Latz (S)TEX2.02013

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
BAL +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 1 · BAL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 48%, TEX 52% · Updated Aug 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.4 – 4.1 BAL
Expected total
8.5
OriolesThe matchupRangers
+109Our fair odds−109
4.1Expected runs4.4
−0.05Power rating−0.03
4.5Runs / game4.1
4.8Allowed / game4.4
7.7Hits / game8.2
1.16Home runs / game1.14
3.9Walks drawn / game3.2
56−59Season record57−58
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · TEX chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshi44.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+10948%+12444.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−10952%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.3our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 14%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more38%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more28%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 1.62 ERA, 12 Kstarted
TEXNathan Eovaldi SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 6.19 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·TEX
Aug 6 vs LAA
last game
Aug 5 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 115+ games
BAL·TEX
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.5
runs / game
4.1
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
56−59
season record
57−58
32−30
home record
30−26
24−29
away record
27−32
L1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
8.2
1.16
home runs / game
1.14
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.65
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

BAL · TEX · 132 days
Baltimore OriolesTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 7−3
Apr 1at BALBAL 8 − 3
Mar 31at BALTEX 8 − 5
Mar 30at BALTEX 5 − 2
Jul 2, 2025at TEXTEX 6 − 0
Jul 1, 2025at TEXTEX 10 − 2
Jun 30, 2025at TEXBAL 10 − 6
Jun 25, 2025at BALTEX 7 − 0
Jun 24, 2025at BALTEX 6 − 5
Jun 23, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 0
Jul 21, 2024at TEXTEX 3 − 2

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 6vs LAA1 − 4L
Aug 5vs LAA5 − 2W
Aug 4vs LAA3 − 1W
Aug 2vs PHI0 − 8L
Aug 1vs PHI0 − 5L
Jul 31vs PHI6 − 4W
Jul 29at DET10 − 9W
Jul 28at DET0 − 14L
Jul 27at DET8 − 5W
Jul 26vs ATL2 − 3L

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Aug 5vs SF6 − 0W
Aug 4vs SF5 − 4W
Aug 3vs SF1 − 5L
Aug 2at HOU3 − 7L
Aug 1at HOU4 − 5L
Jul 31at HOU2 − 11L
Jul 30at TB2 − 3L
Jul 29at TB0 − 3L
Jul 28at TB4 − 1W
Jul 27vs SEA7 − 3W