bayesRatings

Nationals at Rangers

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 19 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final WSH 6 – TEX 0
← MLB / Aug 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH001101300690
TEX000000000041
Team box
WSH·TEX
9
hits
4
2
home runs
0
3
walks
1
5
strikeouts
13
120
pitches thrown
167
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andres ChaparroWSH3-4313
Jose TenaWSH2-3211
Corey SeagerTEX2-4000
Keibert RuizWSH1-3001
Elias DiazTEX1-3000
Evan CarterTEX1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cade Cavalli (W)WSH6.030111
Kumar Rocker (L)TEX5.06213

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +6
WSH +6
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · WSH 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 48%, TEX 52% · Updated Aug 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.3 – 4.3 WSH
Expected total
8.7
NationalsThe matchupRangers
+110Our fair odds−110
4.3Expected runs4.3
−0.09Power rating−0.06
5.3Runs / game4.1
5.2Allowed / game4.4
8.6Hits / game8.1
1.42Home runs / game1.11
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
60−67Season record62−64
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · TEX chance
Our model fair47.6%52.4%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+11048%+10548.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−11052%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington NationalsPKour margin————
TEXTexas RangersPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 12%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 17%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more35%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more25%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 21 Kstarted
TEXKumar Rocker SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 8.10 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·TEX
Aug 18 at TEX
last game
Aug 18 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 126+ games
WSH·TEX
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
5.3
runs / game
4.1
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.4
60−67
season record
62−64
27−36
home record
33−27
33−31
away record
29−37
L4
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
8.1
1.42
home runs / game
1.11
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.70
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

WSH · TEX · 144 days
Washington NationalsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 6−4
Aug 18at TEXTEX 5 − 0
Jun 8, 2025at WSHTEX 4 − 2
Jun 7, 2025at WSHTEX 5 − 0
Jun 6, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 0
May 2, 2024at TEXTEX 6 − 0
May 1, 2024at TEXWSH 1 − 0
Apr 30, 2024at TEXTEX 7 − 1
Jul 9, 2023at WSHWSH 7 − 2
Jul 8, 2023at WSHWSH 8 − 3
Jul 7, 2023at WSHTEX 7 − 2

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Aug 18at TEX0 − 5L
Aug 16at NYM3 − 4L
Aug 15at NYM4 − 5L
Aug 14at NYM1 − 4L
Aug 13vs CHC7 − 0W
Aug 12vs CHC6 − 12L
Aug 11vs CHC6 − 8L
Aug 9vs CIN7 − 1W
Aug 8vs CIN8 − 2W
Aug 7vs CIN5 − 3W

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 18vs WSH5 − 0W
Aug 16at ATH2 − 5L
Aug 15at ATH5 − 3W
Aug 14at ATH3 − 8L
Aug 13at LAA0 − 7L
Aug 12at LAA2 − 5L
Aug 11at LAA2 − 3L
Aug 10at LAA4 − 1W
Aug 9vs BAL5 − 10L
Aug 8vs BAL5 − 1W