bayesRatings

Rangers at Angels

MLB · Thursday, Aug 13 · 9:07 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final TEX 0 – LAA 7
← MLB / Aug 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX000000000051
LAA020040107152
Team box
TEX·LAA
5
hits
15
0
home runs
0
2
walks
3
8
strikeouts
10
173
pitches thrown
137
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mike TroutLAA3-5101
Josh LoweLAA2-4002
Denzer GuzmanLAA3-4201
Adam FrazierLAA2-4101
Jose SiriLAA1-4002
Vaughn GrissomLAA1-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob deGrom (L)TEX2.06213
Walbert Urena (W)LAA6.02025

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +7
TEX +7
123456789
largest lead: LAA 7 · TEX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 55%, LAA 45% · Updated Aug 13

Expected margin
TEX by 0.5
Expected score
TEX 4.6 – 4.1 LAA
Expected total
8.7
RangersThe matchupAngels
−121Our fair odds+121
4.6Expected runs4.1
−0.04Power rating−0.31
4.1Runs / game4.1
4.4Allowed / game4.8
8.1Hits / game7.8
1.12Home runs / game1.02
3.2Walks drawn / game3.2
60−61Season record47−74
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · LAA chance
Our model fair54.8%45.2%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers−12155%−14859.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12145%+12444.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.5
TEXTexas Rangers−0.5our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.5 expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byLAA wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more40%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more30%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 4.72 ERA, 16 Kstarted
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 3.14 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·LAA
Aug 12 at LAA
last game
Aug 12 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 121+ games
TEX·LAA
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.31
4.1
runs / game
4.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.8
60−61
season record
47−74
32−27
home record
27−34
28−34
away record
20−40
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
7.8
1.12
home runs / game
1.02
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.41
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

TEX · LAA · 138 days
Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 6−4
Aug 12at LAALAA 5 − 2
Aug 11at LAALAA 3 − 2
Aug 10at LAATEX 4 − 1
Jul 9at TEXTEX 7 − 6
Jul 8at TEXLAA 13 − 1
Jul 7at TEXTEX 8 − 3
May 24at LAALAA 2 − 1
May 23at LAALAA 5 − 2
May 22at LAALAA 9 − 6
Aug 27, 2025at TEXTEX 20 − 3

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Aug 12at LAA2 − 5L
Aug 11at LAA2 − 3L
Aug 10at LAA4 − 1W
Aug 9vs BAL5 − 10L
Aug 8vs BAL5 − 1W
Aug 7vs BAL2 − 1W
Aug 5vs SF6 − 0W
Aug 4vs SF5 − 4W
Aug 3vs SF1 − 5L
Aug 2at HOU3 − 7L

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Aug 12vs TEX5 − 2W
Aug 11vs TEX3 − 2W
Aug 10vs TEX1 − 4L
Aug 9at MIA3 − 12L
Aug 8at MIA0 − 7L
Aug 7at MIA4 − 3W
Aug 6at BAL4 − 1W
Aug 5at BAL2 − 5L
Aug 4at BAL1 − 3L
Aug 2vs MIL3 − 0W