bayesRatings

Cubs at Nationals

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 12 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final CHC 12 – WSH 6
← MLB / Aug 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC00004503012132
WSH0100310016111
Team box
CHC·WSH
13
hits
11
4
home runs
2
6
walks
4
11
strikeouts
8
156
pitches thrown
196
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alex BregmanCHC3-3337
Dansby SwansonCHC2-4312
Daylen LileWSH2-4003
Seiya SuzukiCHC2-4202
Jose TenaWSH1-1111
Abimelec OrtizWSH1-2111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
David Peterson (W)CHC5.09336
Javier Assad (S)CHC4.02212
Jackson KentWSH4.03356
Tom Cosgrove (L)WSH0.12101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +7
CHC +7
123456789
largest lead: WSH 1 · CHC 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 56%, WSH 44% · Updated Aug 12

Expected margin
CHC by 1.4
Expected score
CHC 6.2 – 4.8 WSH
Expected total
11.1
CubsThe matchupNationals
−129Our fair odds+129
6.2Expected runs4.8
+0.26Power rating−0.06
5.2Runs / game5.4
4.3Allowed / game5.2
8.6Hits / game8.6
1.26Home runs / game1.44
4.3Walks drawn / game3.5
70−50Season record59−62
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · WSH chance
Our model fair56.3%43.7%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−12956%−16862.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+12944%+14041.7%———
SpreadCHC by 1.4
CHCChicago Cubs−1.4our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.1
Over11.1our total————
Under11.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.4 expected
Chicago Cubs by 17 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 16 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 17 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byWSH wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more49%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more39%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCDavid Peterson SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 14 Kstarted
WSHJackson Kent SP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·WSH
Aug 11 at WSH
last game
Aug 11 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 120+ games
CHC·WSH
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
5.2
runs / game
5.4
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.2
70−50
season record
59−62
35−24
home record
26−35
35−26
away record
33−27
W2
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
8.6
1.26
home runs / game
1.44
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.37
errors / game
0.73

Rating Trend

CHC · WSH · 137 days
Chicago CubsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 5−5
Aug 11at WSHCHC 8 − 6
Mar 29at CHCWSH 6 − 3
Mar 28at CHCCHC 10 − 2
Mar 26at CHCWSH 10 − 4
Sep 7, 2025at CHCWSH 6 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at CHCWSH 2 − 1
Sep 5, 2025at CHCCHC 11 − 5
Jun 5, 2025at WSHCHC 7 − 1
Jun 4, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 0
Jun 3, 2025at WSHCHC 8 − 3

CHC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Aug 11at WSH8 − 6W
Aug 9at KC10 − 2W
Aug 8at KC3 − 6L
Aug 7at KC6 − 4W
Aug 6vs TOR3 − 2W
Aug 5vs LAD7 − 6W
Aug 4vs LAD5 − 1W
Aug 3vs LAD10 − 5W
Aug 2vs NYY1 − 2L
Aug 1vs NYY5 − 2W

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 11vs CHC6 − 8L
Aug 9vs CIN7 − 1W
Aug 8vs CIN8 − 2W
Aug 7vs CIN5 − 3W
Aug 6at PHI3 − 7L
Aug 5at PHI10 − 4W
Aug 4at PHI0 − 5L
Aug 3at PHI3 − 6L
Aug 2at ATL2 − 4L
Aug 1at ATL3 − 8L