bayesRatings

Nationals at Phillies

MLB · Monday, Aug 3 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final WSH 3 – PHI 6
← MLB / Aug 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH120000000360
PHI00000042651
Team box
WSH·PHI
6
hits
5
2
home runs
2
3
walks
5
10
strikeouts
6
116
pitches thrown
153
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Derek HillPHI1-3114
Bryce HarperPHI1-4112
Daylen LileWSH1-4112
Abimelec OrtizWSH1-3111
Keibert RuizWSH2-4100
Edmundo SosaPHI1-2100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew AlvarezWSH6.13235
Tom Cosgrove (L)WSH0.21211
Aaron NolaPHI6.06325
Kyle Backhus (W)PHI1.00011
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: PHI 3 · WSH 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 44%, PHI 56% · Updated Aug 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.9 – 4.5 WSH
Expected total
9.4
NationalsThe matchupPhillies
+126Our fair odds−126
4.5Expected runs4.9
−0.08Power rating+0.09
5.4Runs / game4.4
5.2Allowed / game4.4
8.6Hits / game7.9
1.45Home runs / game1.27
3.5Walks drawn / game3.0
55−58Season record59−53
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · PHI chance
Our model fair44.3%55.7%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+12644%+12943.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12656%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals+0.3our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 17%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more38%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more29%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHAndrew Alvarez SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.28 ERA, 10 Kstarted
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.76 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·PHI
Aug 2 at ATL
last game
Aug 2 at BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 112+ games
WSH·PHI
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
5.4
runs / game
4.4
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.4
55−58
season record
59−53
23−34
home record
28−27
32−24
away record
31−26
L5
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
3−7
8.6
hits / game
7.9
1.45
home runs / game
1.27
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.78
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

WSH · PHI · 128 days
Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 7−3
Jun 25at WSHPHI 10 − 5
Jun 24at WSHPHI 5 − 4
Jun 23at WSHPHI 14 − 9
Jun 22at WSHWSH 4 − 1
Apr 1at PHIPHI 6 − 5
Mar 31at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Mar 30at PHIWSH 13 − 2
Aug 24, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Aug 22, 2025at PHIWSH 5 − 4

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Aug 2at ATL2 − 4L
Aug 1at ATL3 − 8L
Jul 31at ATL2 − 6L
Jul 30at ATL4 − 5L
Jul 29vs TOR2 − 5L
Jul 28vs TOR8 − 6W
Jul 27vs TOR2 − 3L
Jul 26vs ARI10 − 7W
Jul 25vs ARI5 − 3W
Jul 24vs ARI2 − 3L

PHI · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Aug 2at BAL8 − 0W
Aug 1at BAL5 − 0W
Jul 31at BAL4 − 6L
Jul 29at MIA6 − 8L
Jul 28at MIA0 − 1L
Jul 27at MIA7 − 8L
Jul 26vs NYY11 − 4W
Jul 25vs NYY1 − 3L
Jul 24vs NYY0 − 1L
Jul 22vs LAD5 − 9L