bayesRatings

Cubs at Royals

MLB · Saturday, Aug 8 · 6:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final CHC 3 – KC 6
← MLB / Aug 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000201000370
KC121000206101
Team box
CHC·KC
7
hits
10
1
home runs
2
3
walks
4
10
strikeouts
1
133
pitches thrown
156
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jac CaglianoneKC4-4224
Ian HappCHC2-4111
Carson KellyCHC1-3002
Josh RojasKC1-4002
Tyrone TaylorCHC1-2000
Michael ConfortoCHC1-1000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Clay Holmes (L)CHC4.06421
Seth Lugo (W)KC6.05315
Nate Pearson (S)KC1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +4
CHC +4
123456789
largest lead: KC 4 · CHC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 58%, KC 42% · Updated Aug 8

Expected margin
CHC by 1.4
Expected score
CHC 5.2 – 3.8 KC
Expected total
9.0
CubsThe matchupRoyals
−141Our fair odds+141
5.2Expected runs3.8
+0.25Power rating−0.16
5.1Runs / game4.1
4.3Allowed / game5.0
8.5Hits / game8.2
1.24Home runs / game1.00
4.3Walks drawn / game3.1
68−49Season record48−69
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · KC chance
Our model fair58.5%41.5%
Kalshi61.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−14158%−16161.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+14142%+13442.7%———
SpreadCHC by 1.4
CHCChicago Cubs−1.4our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.4 expected
Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 16%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 8%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 14 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 15 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byKC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more48%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more38%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCClay Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 20 Kstarted
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·KC
Aug 7 at KC
last game
Aug 7 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 117+ games
CHC·KC
+0.25
rating (0 = average)
−0.16
5.1
runs / game
4.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.0
68−49
season record
48−69
35−24
home record
28−29
33−25
away record
20−40
W5
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
3−7
8.5
hits / game
8.2
1.24
home runs / game
1.00
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.38
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

CHC · KC · 133 days
Chicago CubsKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 4−6
Aug 7at KCCHC 6 − 4
Jul 23, 2025at CHCKC 8 − 4
Jul 22, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 0
Jul 21, 2025at CHCKC 12 − 4
Jul 28, 2024at KCCHC 7 − 3
Jul 27, 2024at KCCHC 9 − 4
Jul 26, 2024at KCKC 6 − 0
Aug 20, 2023at CHCCHC 4 − 3
Aug 19, 2023at CHCCHC 6 − 4
Aug 18, 2023at CHCKC 4 − 3

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Aug 7at KC6 − 4W
Aug 6vs TOR3 − 2W
Aug 5vs LAD7 − 6W
Aug 4vs LAD5 − 1W
Aug 3vs LAD10 − 5W
Aug 2vs NYY1 − 2L
Aug 1vs NYY5 − 2W
Jul 31vs NYY0 − 2L
Jul 30at STL4 − 2W
Jul 29at STL2 − 3L

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Aug 7vs CHC4 − 6L
Aug 6vs MIN3 − 4L
Aug 5vs MIN2 − 1W
Aug 4vs MIN8 − 2W
Aug 2at COL1 − 8L
Aug 1at COL6 − 12L
Jul 31at COL1 − 3L
Jul 30at MIN3 − 4L
Jul 29at MIN4 − 0W
Jul 28at MIN2 − 3L