bayesRatings

Twins at Royals

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 5 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final MIN 1 – KC 2
← MLB / Aug 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN000100000130
KC00001010250
Team box
MIN·KC
3
hits
5
0
home runs
1
1
walks
2
10
strikeouts
4
118
pitches thrown
122
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael MasseyKC2-3211
Kyle IsbelKC0-2001
Isaac CollinsKC1-3000
Nick LoftinKC1-3000
Jac CaglianoneKC1-3000
Royce LewisMIN1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Dean KremerMIN5.03122
A.J. Minter (L)MIN1.01100
Noah Cameron (W)KC8.03119
Steven Cruz (S)KC1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: KC 1 · MIN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 50%, KC 50% · Updated Aug 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIN 4.6 – 4.5 KC
Expected total
9.2
TwinsThe matchupRoyals
+100Our fair odds−100
4.6Expected runs4.5
−0.09Power rating−0.15
4.7Runs / game4.2
5.0Allowed / game5.1
8.2Hits / game8.3
1.19Home runs / game1.01
3.3Walks drawn / game3.1
56−58Season record47−67
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · KC chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+10050%+10548.7%———
KCKansas City Royals−10050%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins−0.1our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 13%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byKC wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more37%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more28%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINDean Kremer SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 10.29 ERA, 14 Kstarted
KCNoah Cameron SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·KC
Aug 4 at KC
last game
Aug 4 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 114+ games
MIN·KC
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
4.7
runs / game
4.2
5.0
runs allowed / game
5.1
56−58
season record
47−67
30−27
home record
27−27
26−31
away record
20−40
L3
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
8.3
1.19
home runs / game
1.01
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.50
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

MIN · KC · 130 days
Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 6−4
Aug 4at KCKC 8 − 2
Jul 30at MINMIN 4 − 3
Jul 29at MINKC 4 − 0
Jul 28at MINMIN 3 − 2
Jun 7at MINKC 6 − 5
Jun 6at MINKC 3 − 2
Jun 5at MINMIN 5 − 3
Jun 4at MINKC 8 − 6
Apr 2at KCMIN 5 − 1
Apr 1at KCKC 13 − 9

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Aug 4at KC2 − 8L
Aug 2at SEA6 − 7L
Aug 1at SEA3 − 4L
Jul 31at SEA5 − 3W
Jul 30vs KC4 − 3W
Jul 29vs KC0 − 4L
Jul 28vs KC3 − 2W
Jul 26vs ATH11 − 8W
Jul 25vs ATH2 − 0W
Jul 24vs ATH0 − 2L

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 4vs MIN8 − 2W
Aug 2at COL1 − 8L
Aug 1at COL6 − 12L
Jul 31at COL1 − 3L
Jul 30at MIN3 − 4L
Jul 29at MIN4 − 0W
Jul 28at MIN2 − 3L
Jul 26at DET5 − 4W
Jul 25at DET3 − 2W
Jul 24at DET1 − 2L