bayesRatings

Twins at Mariners

MLB · Friday, Jul 31 · 9:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final MIN 5 – SEA 3
← MLB / Jul 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN020000210570
SEA210000000340
Team box
MIN·SEA
7
hits
4
3
home runs
1
2
walks
4
8
strikeouts
14
162
pitches thrown
138
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brooks LeeMIN1-4112
Royce LewisMIN1-4111
Ryan JeffersMIN1-4111
Cole YoungSEA1-4111
Luke KeaschallMIN2-3001
Cal RaleighSEA1-3002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zebby MatthewsMIN5.043210
Kody Funderburk (W)MIN1.10002
Yoendrys Gomez (S)MIN1.00021
Bryce MillerSEA5.13223
Jose Ferrer (L)SEA1.02201

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: SEA 2 · MIN 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 46%, SEA 54% · Updated Jul 31

Expected margin
SEA by 0.6
Expected score
SEA 4.5 – 3.9 MIN
Expected total
8.4
TwinsThe matchupMariners
+115Our fair odds−115
3.9Expected runs4.5
−0.07Power rating+0.01
4.7Runs / game4.0
5.0Allowed / game4.0
8.2Hits / game7.6
1.15Home runs / game1.17
3.3Walks drawn / game3.2
55−55Season record53−57
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · SEA chance
Our model fair46.5%53.5%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+11546%+14041.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−11554%−16862.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.6
MINMinnesota Twins+0.6our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.6 expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 13%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more41%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more30%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINZebby Matthews SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 8.40 ERA, 8 Kstarted
SEABryce Miller SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 6.19 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·SEA
Jul 30 vs KC
last game
Jul 30 at LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 110+ games
MIN·SEA
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.7
runs / game
4.0
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.0
55−55
season record
53−57
30−27
home record
30−23
25−28
away record
23−34
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
3−7
8.2
hits / game
7.6
1.15
home runs / game
1.17
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.50
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

MIN · SEA · 125 days
Minnesota TwinsSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 6−4
Apr 29at MINSEA 5 − 3
Apr 28at MINSEA 7 − 1
Apr 27at MINMIN 11 − 4
Jun 26, 2025at MINMIN 10 − 1
Jun 25, 2025at MINMIN 2 − 0
Jun 24, 2025at MINSEA 6 − 5
Jun 23, 2025at MINSEA 11 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at SEASEA 2 − 1
May 31, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 4
May 30, 2025at SEAMIN 12 − 6

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 30vs KC4 − 3W
Jul 29vs KC0 − 4L
Jul 28vs KC3 − 2W
Jul 26vs ATH11 − 8W
Jul 25vs ATH2 − 0W
Jul 24vs ATH0 − 2L
Jul 23at CLE3 − 1W
Jul 22at CLE10 − 6W
Jul 21at CLE2 − 5L
Jul 20at CLE4 − 13L

SEA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jul 30at LAD2 − 6L
Jul 29at LAD2 − 4L
Jul 28at LAD7 − 6W
Jul 27at TEX3 − 7L
Jul 26at TEX6 − 4W
Jul 25at TEX1 − 7L
Jul 24at TEX4 − 5L
Jul 22vs CIN3 − 5L
Jul 21vs CIN2 − 4L
Jul 20vs CIN8 − 0W