bayesRatings

Twins at Royals

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 4 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final MIN 2 – KC 8
← MLB / Aug 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN000100010272
KC200030038101
Team box
MIN·KC
7
hits
10
1
home runs
0
4
walks
4
4
strikeouts
5
147
pitches thrown
146
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bobby Witt Jr.KC3-5202
Josh BellMIN2-4111
Royce LewisMIN4-4000
Starling MarteKC1-1102
Kyle IsbelKC2-4101
Jac CaglianoneKC2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joe Ryan (L)MIN5.17423
Randy Dobnak (W)KC5.03131

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +6
MIN +6
123456789
largest lead: KC 6 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 51%, KC 49% · Updated Aug 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIN 4.7 – 4.5 KC
Expected total
9.2
TwinsThe matchupRoyals
−103Our fair odds+103
4.7Expected runs4.5
−0.08Power rating−0.17
4.7Runs / game4.1
5.0Allowed / game5.1
8.2Hits / game8.2
1.19Home runs / game1.02
3.2Walks drawn / game3.1
56−57Season record46−67
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · KC chance
Our model fair50.8%49.2%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins−10351%−14859.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+10349%+12444.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins−0.2our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 13%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byKC wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more38%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more28%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINJoe Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 7.88 ERA, 13 Kstarted
KCRandy Dobnak SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 0.55 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·KC
Aug 2 at SEA
last game
Aug 2 at COL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 113+ games
MIN·KC
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.17
4.7
runs / game
4.1
5.0
runs allowed / game
5.1
56−57
season record
46−67
30−27
home record
26−27
26−30
away record
20−40
L2
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
3−7
8.2
hits / game
8.2
1.19
home runs / game
1.02
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.49
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

MIN · KC · 129 days
Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 6−4
Jul 30at MINMIN 4 − 3
Jul 29at MINKC 4 − 0
Jul 28at MINMIN 3 − 2
Jun 7at MINKC 6 − 5
Jun 6at MINKC 3 − 2
Jun 5at MINMIN 5 − 3
Jun 4at MINKC 8 − 6
Apr 2at KCMIN 5 − 1
Apr 1at KCKC 13 − 9
Mar 30at KCKC 3 − 1

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Aug 2at SEA6 − 7L
Aug 1at SEA3 − 4L
Jul 31at SEA5 − 3W
Jul 30vs KC4 − 3W
Jul 29vs KC0 − 4L
Jul 28vs KC3 − 2W
Jul 26vs ATH11 − 8W
Jul 25vs ATH2 − 0W
Jul 24vs ATH0 − 2L
Jul 23at CLE3 − 1W

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Aug 2at COL1 − 8L
Aug 1at COL6 − 12L
Jul 31at COL1 − 3L
Jul 30at MIN3 − 4L
Jul 29at MIN4 − 0W
Jul 28at MIN2 − 3L
Jul 26at DET5 − 4W
Jul 25at DET3 − 2W
Jul 24at DET1 − 2L
Jul 23at DET3 − 4L