bayesRatings

Twins at Royals

MLB · Thursday, Aug 6 · 6:30 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final MIN 4 – KC 3
← MLB / Aug 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN000010030470
KC002001000370
Team box
MIN·KC
7
hits
7
1
home runs
0
7
walks
1
4
strikeouts
4
125
pitches thrown
171
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Royce LewisMIN1-4111
Bobby Witt Jr.KC3-4200
Jac CaglianoneKC1-4002
Brooks LeeMIN1-4002
Salvador PerezKC1-3001
Josh BellMIN1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bailey OberMIN6.06300
Kody Funderburk (W)MIN1.01001
Yoendrys Gomez (S)MIN1.00012
Michael WachaKC5.23131
Aaron Bummer (L)KC0.12310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: KC 2 · MIN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 50%, KC 50% · Updated Aug 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIN 4.6 – 4.5 KC
Expected total
9.1
TwinsThe matchupRoyals
+102Our fair odds−102
4.6Expected runs4.5
−0.10Power rating−0.15
4.7Runs / game4.1
5.0Allowed / game5.0
8.2Hits / game8.2
1.18Home runs / game1.01
3.2Walks drawn / game3.1
56−59Season record48−67
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · KC chance
Our model fair49.6%50.4%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:30 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+10250%+11446.7%———
KCKansas City Royals−10250%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins−0.1our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 12%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byKC wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more37%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more28%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, 12 Kstarted
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.89 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·KC
Aug 5 at KC
last game
Aug 5 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 115+ games
MIN·KC
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
4.7
runs / game
4.1
5.0
runs allowed / game
5.0
56−59
season record
48−67
30−27
home record
28−27
26−32
away record
20−40
L4
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
8.2
1.18
home runs / game
1.01
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.50
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

MIN · KC · 131 days
Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 6−4
Aug 5at KCKC 2 − 1
Aug 4at KCKC 8 − 2
Jul 30at MINMIN 4 − 3
Jul 29at MINKC 4 − 0
Jul 28at MINMIN 3 − 2
Jun 7at MINKC 6 − 5
Jun 6at MINKC 3 − 2
Jun 5at MINMIN 5 − 3
Jun 4at MINKC 8 − 6
Apr 2at KCMIN 5 − 1

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Aug 5at KC1 − 2L
Aug 4at KC2 − 8L
Aug 2at SEA6 − 7L
Aug 1at SEA3 − 4L
Jul 31at SEA5 − 3W
Jul 30vs KC4 − 3W
Jul 29vs KC0 − 4L
Jul 28vs KC3 − 2W
Jul 26vs ATH11 − 8W
Jul 25vs ATH2 − 0W

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Aug 5vs MIN2 − 1W
Aug 4vs MIN8 − 2W
Aug 2at COL1 − 8L
Aug 1at COL6 − 12L
Jul 31at COL1 − 3L
Jul 30at MIN3 − 4L
Jul 29at MIN4 − 0W
Jul 28at MIN2 − 3L
Jul 26at DET5 − 4W
Jul 25at DET3 − 2W