bayesRatings

Nationals at Phillies

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 5 · 6:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final WSH 10 – PHI 4
← MLB / Aug 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
WSH1000002001610100
PHI02000010010450
Team box
WSH·PHI
10
hits
5
1
home runs
1
8
walks
6
11
strikeouts
5
175
pitches thrown
199
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
CJ AbramsWSH3-5203
Luis ArraezPHI1-5111
Brady HouseWSH1-4211
Andres ChaparroWSH1-3002
Bryson StottPHI1-2001
Keibert RuizWSH1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jake IrvinWSH5.13223
Clayton Beeter (W)WSH1.00011
Andrew PainterPHI4.03114
Caleb Kilian (L)PHI0.11421

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +6
WSH +6
1234567891011
largest lead: PHI 1 · WSH 6lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 43%, PHI 57% · Updated Aug 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.9 – 4.5 WSH
Expected total
9.3
NationalsThe matchupPhillies
+130Our fair odds−130
4.5Expected runs4.9
−0.09Power rating+0.11
5.3Runs / game4.4
5.2Allowed / game4.4
8.6Hits / game7.9
1.44Home runs / game1.26
3.5Walks drawn / game3.0
55−60Season record61−53
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · PHI chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshi37.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+13043%+16637.6%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−13057%−20867.6%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals+0.4our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 17%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more39%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more29%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHJake Irvin SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 14 Kstarted
PHIAndrew Painter SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 9.95 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·PHI
Aug 4 at PHI
last game
Aug 4 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 114+ games
WSH·PHI
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
5.3
runs / game
4.4
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.4
55−60
season record
61−53
23−34
home record
30−27
32−26
away record
31−26
L7
streak
W4
2−8
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
7.9
1.44
home runs / game
1.26
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.77
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

WSH · PHI · 130 days
Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 8−2
Aug 4at PHIPHI 5 − 0
Aug 3at PHIPHI 6 − 3
Jun 25at WSHPHI 10 − 5
Jun 24at WSHPHI 5 − 4
Jun 23at WSHPHI 14 − 9
Jun 22at WSHWSH 4 − 1
Apr 1at PHIPHI 6 − 5
Mar 31at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Mar 30at PHIWSH 13 − 2
Aug 24, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Aug 4at PHI0 − 5L
Aug 3at PHI3 − 6L
Aug 2at ATL2 − 4L
Aug 1at ATL3 − 8L
Jul 31at ATL2 − 6L
Jul 30at ATL4 − 5L
Jul 29vs TOR2 − 5L
Jul 28vs TOR8 − 6W
Jul 27vs TOR2 − 3L
Jul 26vs ARI10 − 7W

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Aug 4vs WSH5 − 0W
Aug 3vs WSH6 − 3W
Aug 2at BAL8 − 0W
Aug 1at BAL5 − 0W
Jul 31at BAL4 − 6L
Jul 29at MIA6 − 8L
Jul 28at MIA0 − 1L
Jul 27at MIA7 − 8L
Jul 26vs NYY11 − 4W
Jul 25vs NYY1 − 3L