bayesRatings

Nationals at Phillies

MLB · Thursday, Aug 6 · 5:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final WSH 3 – PHI 7
← MLB / Aug 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH010101000380
PHI213001007160
Team box
WSH·PHI
8
hits
16
1
home runs
0
3
walks
2
12
strikeouts
3
139
pitches thrown
161
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andrew PinckneyWSH1-2111
J.T. RealmutoPHI2-4201
Kyle SchwarberPHI2-5001
Luis ArraezPHI2-4001
Brandon MarshPHI2-4101
Bryson StottPHI2-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Miles Mikolas (L)WSH5.012611
Cristopher Sanchez (W)PHI5.06226

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +5
WSH +5
123456789
largest lead: PHI 5 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 44%, PHI 56% · Updated Aug 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.8 – 4.5 WSH
Expected total
9.3
NationalsThe matchupPhillies
+127Our fair odds−127
4.5Expected runs4.8
−0.08Power rating+0.10
5.3Runs / game4.4
5.2Allowed / game4.4
8.6Hits / game7.9
1.44Home runs / game1.26
3.6Walks drawn / game3.0
56−60Season record61−54
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · PHI chance
Our model fair44.0%56.0%
Kalshi26.3%77.3%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+12744%+28026.3%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12756%−34077.3%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals+0.3our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 17%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more38%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more29%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHMiles Mikolas SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 7.88 ERA, 7 Kstarted
PHICristopher Sanchez SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·PHI
Aug 5 at PHI
last game
Aug 5 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 115+ games
WSH·PHI
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
5.3
runs / game
4.4
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.4
56−60
season record
61−54
23−34
home record
30−28
33−26
away record
31−26
W1
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
7.9
1.44
home runs / game
1.26
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.76
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

WSH · PHI · 131 days
Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 7−3
Aug 5at PHIWSH 10 − 4
Aug 4at PHIPHI 5 − 0
Aug 3at PHIPHI 6 − 3
Jun 25at WSHPHI 10 − 5
Jun 24at WSHPHI 5 − 4
Jun 23at WSHPHI 14 − 9
Jun 22at WSHWSH 4 − 1
Apr 1at PHIPHI 6 − 5
Mar 31at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Mar 30at PHIWSH 13 − 2

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Aug 5at PHI10 − 4W
Aug 4at PHI0 − 5L
Aug 3at PHI3 − 6L
Aug 2at ATL2 − 4L
Aug 1at ATL3 − 8L
Jul 31at ATL2 − 6L
Jul 30at ATL4 − 5L
Jul 29vs TOR2 − 5L
Jul 28vs TOR8 − 6W
Jul 27vs TOR2 − 3L

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 5vs WSH4 − 10L
Aug 4vs WSH5 − 0W
Aug 3vs WSH6 − 3W
Aug 2at BAL8 − 0W
Aug 1at BAL5 − 0W
Jul 31at BAL4 − 6L
Jul 29at MIA6 − 8L
Jul 28at MIA0 − 1L
Jul 27at MIA7 − 8L
Jul 26vs NYY11 − 4W