bayesRatings

Reds at Nationals

MLB · Friday, Aug 7 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final CIN 3 – WSH 5
← MLB / Aug 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN012000000371
WSH30020000570
Team box
CIN·WSH
7
hits
7
3
home runs
2
3
walks
2
10
strikeouts
10
143
pitches thrown
128
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Daylen LileWSH2-4213
Matt McLainCIN2-3111
Harry FordWSH1-3112
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-4111
Elly De La CruzCIN1-2111
Ke'Bryan HayesCIN1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chase PettyCIN1.22211
Julian Garcia (L)CIN2.12203
Cade Cavalli (W)WSH6.07328
Clayton Beeter (S)WSH1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: WSH 3 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 50%, WSH 50% · Updated Aug 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 5.5 – 5.4 WSH
Expected total
10.8
RedsThe matchupNationals
+101Our fair odds−101
5.5Expected runs5.4
−0.04Power rating−0.09
4.2Runs / game5.3
4.7Allowed / game5.2
7.7Hits / game8.6
1.32Home runs / game1.44
3.7Walks drawn / game3.6
56−58Season record56−61
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · WSH chance
Our model fair49.6%50.4%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+10150%+10548.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−10150%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds−0.1our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.8
Over10.8our total————
Under10.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 11%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 13%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byWSH wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more39%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more30%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.564%
Total over 10.548%
Total over 12.533%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINChase Petty RP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.24 ERA, 6 Kstarted
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·WSH
Aug 6 vs ATH
last game
Aug 6 at PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 114+ games
CIN·WSH
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.2
runs / game
5.3
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.2
56−58
season record
56−61
29−31
home record
23−34
27−27
away record
33−27
W4
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
2−8
7.7
hits / game
8.6
1.32
home runs / game
1.44
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.54
errors / game
0.75

Rating Trend

CIN · WSH · 132 days
Cincinnati RedsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 7−3
May 14at CINCIN 15 − 1
May 13at CINWSH 8 − 7
May 12at CINWSH 10 − 4
Jul 23, 2025at WSHCIN 5 − 0
Jul 22, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 1
Jul 21, 2025at WSHWSH 10 − 8
May 4, 2025at CINWSH 4 − 1
May 3, 2025at CINWSH 11 − 6
May 2, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 1
Jul 21, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 2

CIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Aug 6vs ATH6 − 5W
Aug 5vs ATH3 − 2W
Aug 4vs ATH5 − 4W
Aug 2vs PIT10 − 2W
Aug 1vs PIT1 − 4L
Jul 31vs PIT8 − 7W
Jul 30vs PIT3 − 2W
Jul 29vs CLE1 − 6L
Jul 28vs CLE2 − 0W
Jul 28vs CLE5 − 6L

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Aug 6at PHI3 − 7L
Aug 5at PHI10 − 4W
Aug 4at PHI0 − 5L
Aug 3at PHI3 − 6L
Aug 2at ATL2 − 4L
Aug 1at ATL3 − 8L
Jul 31at ATL2 − 6L
Jul 30at ATL4 − 5L
Jul 29vs TOR2 − 5L
Jul 28vs TOR8 − 6W