bayesRatings

Pirates at Reds

MLB · Friday, Jul 31 · 5:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final PIT 7 – CIN 8
← MLB / Jul 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT2100100307121
CIN201200038120
Team box
PIT·CIN
12
hits
12
1
home runs
2
3
walks
7
8
strikeouts
12
170
pitches thrown
146
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sal StewartCIN2-5214
Jake MangumPIT2-4112
Brandon LowePIT3-5101
Nick GonzalesPIT2-4102
JJ BledayCIN1-3211
Nathaniel LoweCIN2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Paul SkenesPIT4.07547
Wilber Dotel (L)PIT0.13201
Hunter GreeneCIN6.07424
Emilio Pagan (W)CIN1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 2 · PIT 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 50%, CIN 50% · Updated Jul 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.5 – 4.1 CIN
Expected total
8.7
PiratesThe matchupReds
−100Our fair odds+100
4.5Expected runs4.1
+0.00Power rating−0.06
5.1Runs / game4.1
4.8Allowed / game4.7
9.0Hits / game7.7
1.25Home runs / game1.29
3.6Walks drawn / game3.6
55−55Season record51−57
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CIN chance
Our model fair50.1%49.9%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10050%−13156.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+10050%+10947.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.4our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byCIN wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more40%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more29%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 26 Kstarted
CINHunter Greene SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 4.42 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CIN
Jul 30 at CIN
last game
Jul 30 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 108+ games
PIT·CIN
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
5.1
runs / game
4.1
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.7
55−55
season record
51−57
29−28
home record
24−30
26−27
away record
27−27
L3
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
9.0
hits / game
7.7
1.25
home runs / game
1.29
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.60
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

PIT · CIN · 125 days
Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Jul 30at CINCIN 3 − 2
Jun 28at PITPIT 9 − 4
Jun 27at PITCIN 9 − 7
Jun 26at PITCIN 6 − 4
May 3at PITPIT 1 − 0
May 2at PITPIT 17 − 7
May 1at PITPIT 9 − 1
Apr 1at CINPIT 8 − 3
Mar 31at CINPIT 8 − 3
Mar 30at CINCIN 2 − 0

PIT · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jul 30at CIN2 − 3L
Jul 29vs ARI0 − 3L
Jul 28vs ARI7 − 8L
Jul 27vs ARI3 − 2W
Jul 26vs CHC8 − 7W
Jul 25vs CHC0 − 11L
Jul 24vs CHC2 − 3L
Jul 22at NYY0 − 2L
Jul 22at NYY5 − 3W
Jul 20at NYY5 − 8L

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 30vs PIT3 − 2W
Jul 29vs CLE1 − 6L
Jul 28vs CLE2 − 0W
Jul 28vs CLE5 − 6L
Jul 26at STL5 − 3W
Jul 25at STL0 − 7L
Jul 24at STL4 − 2W
Jul 22at SEA5 − 3W
Jul 21at SEA4 − 2W
Jul 20at SEA0 − 8L