bayesRatings

Pirates at Reds

MLB · Thursday, Jul 30 · 6:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final PIT 2 – CIN 3
← MLB / Jul 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT000011000270
CIN002000001390
Team box
PIT·CIN
7
hits
9
1
home runs
0
2
walks
9
10
strikeouts
12
181
pitches thrown
156
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Elly De La CruzCIN3-4201
Brandon LowePIT1-4111
Dane MyersCIN2-4000
Nathaniel LoweCIN1-4001
Sal StewartCIN1-3001
Nick GonzalesPIT2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Yohan RamirezPIT2.01014
Gregory Soto (L)PIT0.21121
Rhett LowderCIN6.05205
Emilio Pagan (W)CIN1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 2 · PIT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 50%, CIN 50% · Updated Jul 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.6 – 4.2 CIN
Expected total
8.8
PiratesThe matchupReds
−101Our fair odds+101
4.6Expected runs4.2
+0.01Power rating−0.06
5.2Runs / game4.1
4.8Allowed / game4.8
9.0Hits / game7.7
1.26Home runs / game1.30
3.6Walks drawn / game3.6
55−54Season record50−57
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CIN chance
Our model fair50.3%49.7%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10150%−12154.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+10150%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.4our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byCIN wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more40%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more30%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITYohan Ramirez RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
CINRhett Lowder SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 12.00 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CIN
Jul 29 vs ARI
last game
Jul 29 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 107+ games
PIT·CIN
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
5.2
runs / game
4.1
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.8
55−54
season record
50−57
29−28
home record
23−30
26−26
away record
27−27
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
9.0
hits / game
7.7
1.26
home runs / game
1.30
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.61
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

PIT · CIN · 124 days
Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Jun 28at PITPIT 9 − 4
Jun 27at PITCIN 9 − 7
Jun 26at PITCIN 6 − 4
May 3at PITPIT 1 − 0
May 2at PITPIT 17 − 7
May 1at PITPIT 9 − 1
Apr 1at CINPIT 8 − 3
Mar 31at CINPIT 8 − 3
Mar 30at CINCIN 2 − 0
Sep 25, 2025at CINCIN 2 − 1

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jul 29vs ARI0 − 3L
Jul 28vs ARI7 − 8L
Jul 27vs ARI3 − 2W
Jul 26vs CHC8 − 7W
Jul 25vs CHC0 − 11L
Jul 24vs CHC2 − 3L
Jul 22at NYY0 − 2L
Jul 22at NYY5 − 3W
Jul 20at NYY5 − 8L
Jul 19at CLE7 − 1W

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 29vs CLE1 − 6L
Jul 28vs CLE2 − 0W
Jul 28vs CLE5 − 6L
Jul 26at STL5 − 3W
Jul 25at STL0 − 7L
Jul 24at STL4 − 2W
Jul 22at SEA5 − 3W
Jul 21at SEA4 − 2W
Jul 20at SEA0 − 8L
Jul 19at COL9 − 6W