bayesRatings

Athletics at Reds

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 5 · 5:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final ATH 2 – CIN 3
← MLB / Aug 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH100001000240
CIN01001100360
Team box
ATH·CIN
4
hits
6
1
home runs
1
2
walks
1
7
strikeouts
11
129
pitches thrown
130
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Lawrence ButlerATH1-4111
Matt McLainCIN1-3111
Jonah HeimATH1-4001
Jose TrevinoCIN1-3001
Noelvi MarteCIN1-2101
Tyler SoderstromATH1-2100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob LopezATH5.04219
Hayden Juenger (L)ATH0.22101
Rhett Lowder (W)CIN6.04223
Emilio Pagan (S)CIN1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 1 · ATH 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 41%, CIN 59% · Updated Aug 5

Expected margin
CIN by 0.8
Expected score
CIN 5.0 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
9.2
AthleticsThe matchupReds
+141Our fair odds−141
4.2Expected runs5.0
−0.33Power rating−0.04
4.3Runs / game4.2
5.7Allowed / game4.7
8.3Hits / game7.7
1.19Home runs / game1.29
3.4Walks drawn / game3.7
45−68Season record54−58
1−9Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · CIN chance
Our model fair41.4%58.6%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+14141%+14041.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−14159%−16862.7%———
SpreadCIN by 0.8
ATHAthletics+0.8our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Reds by 0.8 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more43%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more32%
Athletics wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 1.84 ERA, 18 Kstarted
CINRhett Lowder SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 8.10 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·CIN
Aug 4 at CIN
last game
Aug 4 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 112+ games
ATH·CIN
−0.33
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.3
runs / game
4.2
5.7
runs allowed / game
4.7
45−68
season record
54−58
21−36
home record
27−31
24−32
away record
27−27
L6
streak
W2
1−9
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
7.7
1.19
home runs / game
1.29
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.43
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

ATH · CIN · 130 days
AthleticsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Aug 4at CINCIN 5 − 4
Sep 14, 2025at ATHATH 7 − 4
Sep 13, 2025at ATHATH 11 − 5
Sep 12, 2025at ATHATH 3 − 0
Aug 29, 2024at CINCIN 10 − 9
Aug 28, 2024at CINATH 9 − 6
Aug 27, 2024at CINATH 5 − 4
Apr 30, 2023at ATHATH 5 − 4
Apr 29, 2023at ATHCIN 3 − 2
Apr 28, 2023at ATHCIN 11 − 7

ATH · Last 10

1−9 · streak L6
Aug 4at CIN4 − 5L
Aug 2vs DET0 − 11L
Aug 1vs DET6 − 8L
Jul 31vs DET1 − 13L
Jul 30vs BOS4 − 5L
Jul 29vs BOS2 − 4L
Jul 28vs BOS4 − 3W
Jul 27vs BOS2 − 4L
Jul 26at MIN8 − 11L
Jul 25at MIN0 − 2L

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Aug 4vs ATH5 − 4W
Aug 2vs PIT10 − 2W
Aug 1vs PIT1 − 4L
Jul 31vs PIT8 − 7W
Jul 30vs PIT3 − 2W
Jul 29vs CLE1 − 6L
Jul 28vs CLE2 − 0W
Jul 28vs CLE5 − 6L
Jul 26at STL5 − 3W
Jul 25at STL0 − 7L